Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 85. South winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 70. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 84. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. South winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds.

Friday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 85. South winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 56 to 68. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A stationary front remains just northwest of Kauai with a high pressure ridge over the islands. This stable weather pattern will keep light southwesterly winds with land and sea breezes along terrain sheltered slopes for most islands through this weekend. An upper level trough will move over this front on Sunday, causing a weak cut off low to form by Monday just west of Kauai. Enough instability from this upper trough will increase shower chances over Kauai from Sunday into Monday. Long range guidance shows southerly winds aloft over Kauai County and Oahu with increasing shower activity from Monday through Wednesday.

Discussion

A stationary front remains just northwest of Kauai with a high pressure ridge locked in place over the Hawaiian Islands. This high pressure ridge over the islands will produce stable conditions in place for the short range weather forecast with temperature inversion heights in the 4,000 to 6,000 foot range limiting vertical cloud development. Surface observations and radar imagery this morning continues to show weak southwesterly flow over the state with no significant rainfall activity. Satellite imagery shows very little cloud cover from the Big Island to Molokai, with some high to mid cloud cover passing over Oahu and Kauai.
The high pressure ridge over the state will linger into Saturday keeping weather conditions over the islands fairly dry. Expect light southwesterly winds with afternoon sea breezes along terrain sheltered north and east sections of each islands and light offshore land breezes at night. Periods of high level cirrus clouds are forecast to drift over the western islands through the weekend, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
A strong upper level trough will approach the Hawaii region from the northwest from Sunday into Monday, divergence ahead of this upper trough will cause a surface low to form along the stationary front. Cold air aloft will become cut off from the mid latitude westerly flow and form a stationary cut off low about 500 miles northwest of Kauai. The surface low will deepen and move northwest under the upper level system from Monday through Wednesday. Southeast winds at the surface with south winds aloft may develop over Kauai and Oahu during this transition with inversion heights in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range. Enough moisture and instability will keep passing showers in the forecast for these western islands from Monday through Wednesday. Drier conditions are expected over the islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties in more stable east to southeasterly winds.
Long range forecast guidance diverges significantly over the Hawaii region between the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models due to challenges in forecasting smaller scale convergence bands around the developing cut off low. The GFS remains on the wetter side of the forecast spreading periods of showers to all islands with the ECMWF keeping drier more stable conditions over Maui and Hawaii Counties. The weather forecast from Wednesday onward will certainly evolve over time as the location of the cut off low center and the small mesoscale convergence cloud bands forming around the low will be key players in our island by island rainfall activity. Stay tuned.

Aviation

Early this morning, low clouds and showers associated with a frontal boundary continue to stream just north of Kauai. Although the bulk of the showers and low clouds remain to the north, Kauai may be brushed with quick moving showers and low clouds from time to time through the morning hours before the band meanders even further north away from the island by the afternoon.
Elsewhere across the state, light southerly winds and mostly dry conditions are expected with a surface ridge axis near the Big Island. Any showers will remain both minimal in coverage and light in intensity.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated at this time.

Marine

A ridge will continue to meander over and south of the islands through the rest of the week as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary north of the area. This pattern will support periods of gentle to moderate south to southwest winds for the western half of the state, and light to moderate south to southeast winds throught the weekend. By next week Monday winds will have backed out of the east in moderate to fresh range as a more progressive systems develops northwest of the state.
Seas and surf will remain on the small side for all Hawaiian waters and shores as minimal swell energy expected through the rest of this week and into the weekend. The next notable short- to medium- period north swell is expected to arrive late this weekend. This swell will provide a boost in north facing shore surf and could build the seas to the 10 ft advisory level if it materializes early next week. South shores surf may see a boost in surf next week Tuesday through midweek.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov