Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 86. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate east southeasterly winds will prevail through the remainder of the weekend. Showers will favor windward and southeast facing slopes during the morning, and interior and leeward areas in the afternoon. An approaching front will lead to more showers and a few downpours on Monday. The front will move southward into the smaller islands Monday night with the moisture lingering through late in the work week even after the front dissipates. This will bring periods of showery weather to windward sections of the smaller islands, with scattered showers expected over interior and leeward areas each afternoon due to sea breeze development. A return to more typical trade wind weather is expected next weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1025 mb high is centered around 1350 miles northeast of Honolulu, while a cold front is located around 550 miles northwest of Kauai. Light to moderate trade winds prevail from Oahu eastward, with light and variable winds over Kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a few pockets of enhanced cloud cover scattered about the islands. Radar imagery shows rather dry conditions over the islands, with only a few showers moving into windward areas, and most shower activity over the adjacent coastal waters. Main short term focus revolves around wind trends and rain chances.
High pressure northeast of the state will weaken and lift northeastward today through Monday, while the cold front makes steady progress southeastward toward the islands. The trades will ease today, with light and variable winds allowing for sea breezes over the western islands this afternoon. The trades will ease and shift southeasterly over the eastern end of the state tonight, with light and variable winds expected statewide by Monday. The front will push through Kauai Monday night, then stall out and gradually dissipate in the vicinity of Oahu and Maui County Tuesday through Friday. Light to locally moderate trades will overspread Kauai and Oahu Monday night, then the remainder of the island chain Tuesday through late in the work week. The trades will likely be light enough for land and sea breezes to be common in many leeward areas. High pressure building north of the state appears to bring a return of moderate trade winds next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, a few showers will continue to affect windward and southeast facing slopes this morning. Daytime heating should then drive shower development over the island interiors this afternoon, with coverage the highest over Kauai and leeward Big Island. Deeper moisture will shift back eastward tonight and Monday in advance of the approaching front. Daytime heating driven showers should diminish quickly this evening, with a few showers possible near the island coasts tonight into early Monday. The higher precipitable water airmass is expected to fuel greater coverage of moderate showers over the islands Monday afternoon, with a few downpours possible. The front will then sag southward into the smaller islands Monday night with the moisture lingering through late in the work week even after it dissipates. This is expected to bring some showery weather to windward areas at times, while sea breeze development over leeward areas will produce scattered showers each afternoon. Over the Big Island the pattern will be rather stagnant, with showers near the coast each night and over the interior each afternoon. A more typical trade wind pattern appears to return next weekend.

Aviation

The light to locally moderate background east-southeast flow in the vicinity of the islands is expected to continue today. As a result, local land breezes will persist over most interior and leeward sections of the islands early this morning. Low clouds and spotty showers will move over some east and southeast facing slopes through mid-morning, with brief periods of MVFR conditions possible in some of the showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail over most areas this morning.
The relatively weak east-southeast flow will likely allow local sea breezes to become established over most of the islands by this afternoon. This would tend to cause clouds and spotty showers to develop over interior and leeward sections of the state later today. Brief periods of MVFR conditions may occur with some of these afternoon clouds and showers, especially on Kauai where lingering moisture combined with slightly unstable conditions may cause widespread clouds and showers. However, VFR conditions will likely prevail across most islands east of Kauai this afternoon. Expect gradual clearing of the low clouds and showers over most areas as local land breezes become established this evening.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated through this morning. By this afternoon, it is possible that AIRMET Sierra may be needed for mountain obscuration on Kauai if widespread low clouds and showers develop later today.

Marine

A surface ridge north of the islands will support light to locally moderate east to southeast winds through the day. A weak front approaching from the northwest will push the ridge over the islands tonight and weaken regional winds to just variable breezes. High pressure northwest of the region will build in behind the slowing front over the western end of the state Monday and Tuesday. Early week light to moderate northeast post-frontal winds will occur over the Kauai and Oahu waters with light easterlies over Maui and Big Island's waters. The frontal boundary will stall over the islands through mid week and then gradually dissipate over the central island waters through late week.
A moderate size, medium period northwest (310 degree) swell has filled in across the island waters. Recent observations from the northwest offshore buoys have indicated that the swell peaked last night and should be falling through the day. A slightly larger reinforcing medium period northwest (320 degree) swell will arrive tonight and fill in Monday. This will maintain elevated surf along north and west-facing shores through Tuesday. A moderate size, smaller period northwest north swell may arrive next weekend. The recent small, long period south (190 degree) swell has peaked and will gradually diminish through Monday. This will result in a slow decline of seasonable surf along many south- facing shores the next couple of days. Weakened east to southeast breezes will produce small wind wave chop along many eastern exposures the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov