Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 87. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system will remain north of the Hawaiian Islands producing an extended period of light to locally breezy trade winds through the end of next week. A land and sea breeze weather pattern will develop over each island as the trade winds weaken from today through Sunday. A narrow upper level trough with embedded lows just north of the islands will produce brief periods of showers over the next several days.

Discussion

The large scale weather picture remains the same with a subtropical ridge locked in place north of the Hawaiian Islands through the end of next week. Global model and satellite water vapor imagery also show a narrow upper level trough, also known as the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), extending from west to east just north of the state. A few unstable lows are embedded within this upper level trough will briefly decrease trade wind strength through Sunday and enhance local shower activity at times over the next seven days. These upper lows will also produce brief periods of high level cirrus clouds that will enhance sunrise and sunset colors across the state.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will decrease into the light to moderate range today through Sunday as upper level lows produce a low level trough near the islands and weaken the trade winds. Decreasing large scale trade winds will allow local island scale land and sea breezes to develop especially along western sides of each island. Day time island heating will cause sea breeze winds to develop a few hours after sunrise. Trade wind speeds will increase to moderate levels on Monday and becoming moderate to locally breezy winds by Wednesday and Thursday.
The upper level trough and embedded lows will produce some instability over the islands keeping the trade wind temperature inversion in the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range for most of the next seven days. This inversion will tend to cap cloud tops in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range allowing periods of showers to develop across the region. Sea breezes will converge with light background trade winds and surface heating will build clouds over island mountain and interior sections from morning to afternoon. Building clouds over the islands will produce brief showers favoring the afternoon to early evening hours through Sunday. Windward areas may also see some enhanced showers mainly in the overnight to early morning hours. The pattern slowly shifts back to more typical trade wind weather by Tuesday, with brief showers favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

Surface high pressure north of the state will allow moderate trades to persist through the remainder of this morning and into the afternoon. Some moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers to mainly windward locations through the forecast period. There may be brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility associated with this activity.
Sea breeze development could affect areas along the leeward coasts by early this afternoon.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 9000 ft over and immediately south through west of mountains.

Marine

Upper level troughing forming north and east of the state will push a weak surface trough across the islands this weekend. This will subtly weaken trades to more gentle and locally moderate speeds. The north-to-south pressure gradient created by a surface high north of the area early next week will maintain moderate east trades through the remainder of the month.
Small, medium period south to southwest swells (180-230 degree) will keep south-facing shore surf heights near or slightly under summer averages (around 5 feet) through Saturday. Surf will drop slightly late Saturday, but will likely increase by Sunday afternoon with the next small, yet slightly higher period south southwest (200-220 degree) swell arrival. Latest American Samoa buoy observations suggest that this early week swell will come in around 3 feet and produce near to slightly above summertime average south surf Sunday into early Monday. East chop will steadily decrease later today and through the weekend in response to weakening trades. North-facing shores will experience nearly flat conditions into Sunday. A small, long period west northwest (300 degree) swell Sunday into Sunday night will produce a slight bump in north and west-facing shore surf through Tuesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov