Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will remain at breezy to locally windy levels through early next week, peaking over the weekend. The trades may ease slightly around the middle of next week. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected during the next 7 days, with bands of clouds and showers moving through the islands at times, although we should see a bit drier weather this weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers occasionally reaching leeward communities due to the strength of the trades.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 900 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions in windward and mauka areas, with partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward areas, with quite a few of these showers reaching leeward communities as well. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances during the next few days.
High pressure north-northeast of the islands will settle southward and closer to the state during the next couple days, strengthening the pressure gradient across the island chain. The trade winds will remain at breezy through Tuesday, and are expected to peak at locally windy levels over the weekend as a drier more stable airmass builds in and lowers inversion heights to around 5-6 kft. This should allow the terrain to be particularly effective at accelerating the winds through the islands, and a Wind Advisory may eventually be required during this time for portions of the state. The trades may ease back to moderate to locally breezy levels around the middle of next week as the high to the distant north weakens slightly.
As for the remaining weather details, typical trade wind weather is expected to continue during the next 7 days, with the exception of this weekend when a drier more stable airmass should reduce shower coverage statewide. Overall, bands of clouds and showers will periodically move through the islands throughout the forecast period, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. A few showers will reach leeward areas at times as well due to the strength of the trades.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong ENE trade winds will remain in place. The trades will deliver randomly distributed showery low clouds, especially to windward and mountain areas, with more robust showers favoring the night time and early morning hours. Although VFR conditions will generally prevail, periods of MVFR VIS/CIG will occur over windward areas this morning. Some showers will briefly spread leeward, but will not linger very long as they will continue to move at speeds near 25 kt. As a result, AIRMET Tango will remain posted for low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions should improve by late morning.

Marine

Small Craft Advisory level easterly trade winds (20-30 kt) are expected to continue through early next week, which will translate to rough conditions. Seas will respond across the exposed waters and reach the 8 to 12 ft range this weekend due to a combination of a solid long-period south-southeast swell arriving and the short-period wind generated seas out of the east.
Surf along south facing shores will begin to rise tonight through Saturday as this large long-period south-southeast swell begins to fill in. Observations at the American Samoa PacIoos buoy reflected this source over the past few days, where the swell peaked well above the predicted levels Wednesday. These observations combined with satellite estimates across the generation region south of Tahiti support the first phase of this event peaking for Hawaii Saturday night through Sunday night, likely driving surf heights to the advisory level of 10 ft (faces). This will be a long-lived event with surf hovering well above average through the first half of next week as a second long-period pulse arrives Monday. Surf will return to the summertime average late next week with the typical background southerly energy moving through.
Surf along east facing shores will trend up and remain rough through early next week due to the strong trades.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain near the summertime average through Saturday, then slightly rise Sunday into next week as a small northwest swell arrives.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov