West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gusty easterly trade winds will linger today, then ease into the moderate to breezy range Wednesday through the weekend. As areas of moisture move through, showers will be common over windward and mauka locations, while only a few make it to the drier leeward areas.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the strong ridge north of the state that has been driving the gusty easterly trades over the past several days gradually eroding as several fronts pass quickly from west to east over the far northern Pacific. Expect the local winds to respond and begin to ease into the more typical moderate to breezy category later today through Wednesday, which should persist through the weekend. Shallow pockets of moisture moving through periodically combined with the strong trades have been producing modest rainfall each day across wetter windward areas, with some managing to make it over leeward areas from Kauai to Maui overnight through the morning periods. This trend will continue into Wednesday, as a band of moisture, currently located a couple of hundred miles to the north- northeast, approaches and clips the western end of the state later today through Wednesday. While showers will remain common for windward areas overnight through the mornings during the second half of the week, lower rainfall chances are expected for leeward areas of the smaller islands due to a combination of the stable conditions, inversion height hovering around 7000 ft, and the trades easing slightly.

Aviation

Expect breezy trade winds to continue today with a high pressure ridge anchored north of the Hawaii region. The ridge will slowly weaken starting on Wednesday with a gradual decrease in wind speeds into the second half of the week. An upper level low will produce periods of showers mainly along northeast mountain slopes of each island in the overnight to early morning hours. Brief periods of showers are possible during the day. Stronger showers may occasionally drift into leeward airfields.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration along windward areas of the Big Island and Maui through the overnight hours. These conditions may diminish by this morning.
AIRMET Tango will remain in place for low level turbulence over and downwind of island mountains today and these conditions will likely continue into tonight.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure will remain nearly stationary north of the islands and gradually weaken over the next couple of days. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will be scaled down to the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island this morning through the end of this week.
Another pulse of long-period, south-southeast swell will hold today, maintaining advisory level surf through this afternoon. Surf will gradually subside Wednesday through Thursday to the summer average or lower.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to the fresh to locally strong trades, but gradually subside into the weekend as the trades ease. A small north-northwest swell will continue to diminish today, though some trade wind swell will still wrap into exposed north shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov