Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 89. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 77. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 76. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 91. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 93. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 90. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 70 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trades will focus low clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas through next week, especially overnight and during the early morning. Periodic high clouds will transit area skies.

Discussion

An inversion around 6.5kft at Lihue and Hilo on this morning's soundings are symptomatic of the typical, stable summertime pattern in place over the islands. Mid-level ridging over the Northeast Pacific will support moderate to locally breezy trades through the forecast period while the subtropical jet funnels periodic high clouds across area skies. The latest model analysis indicates a trough embedded in the trades and anchored around 700mb. Though subtle on satellite imagery, the western half of state is observing a slow but steady increase in shower coverage at press time. Similar to yesterday to yesterday morning, a few locally heavy showers noted. A building mid-level ridge will nudge the subtropical jet north of the area during the middle of next week. Consequently, the attendant upper- level low north of Kauai will shear back into the westerlies, the back edge modeled to sharpen as it swings through. This will be largely inconsequential, but may bring about a slight uptick in trade showers and mid/upper cloud cover during the latter half of next week. Mid-level subsidence works steadily downward during this time, bringing a further increase in mid- level stability from about Wednesday onward.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaii region will keep moderate trade winds blowing across the state through tonight. Expect periods of showers, mainly along north and east slopes of each island, with brief periods of MVFR conditions in the heaviest shower bands.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A surface ridge far north of the state will maintain moderate trade winds this morning. The trade winds are expected to gradually strengthen later today and tonight as the surface ridge builds north of the state. Based on the latest forecast, the trade winds will likely reach the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria over the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island tonight. Therefore, a SCA is in effect from this evening through the afternoon of Tuesday July Fourth for these waters. This SCA will likely need to be extended beyond Tuesday, since the locally strong trade winds are expected to persist through mid-week.
No significant swells are expected through Friday. Small south and southeast swells will maintain small background surf along south facing shores. By Tuesday, some southwest swell energy may also be added to the mix, but surf will likely remain small along south facing shores through Friday. A new slightly larger southwest swell may boost surf heights along south facing shores next weekend. Elsewhere, the weak trade wind regime will likely keep surf small along east facing shores early this week. As the trade winds strengthen, expect choppy surf to gradually build to modest heights along east facing shores later this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov