Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 89. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds will persist through the first half of next week, before strengthening to breezy levels Thursday and Friday, then easing again next weekend. Pockets of moisture will continue to get caught up in the trades through the period, bringing some showery conditions to windward areas at times and sending a few showers into leeward communities as well.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure around 475 miles west of Kauai continues to push west at around 10 to 15 mph. Meanwhile, a 1027 mb high around 1200 miles north of Honolulu is shifting eastward at around 15 mph. The trades continue to blow at moderate to locally breezy levels this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions over windward Maui and the Big Island, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, with nothing more than isolated showers from Molokai westward to Kauai. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
High pressure north of the islands will shift eastward during the next several days, while the trough west of the islands continues westward and further away from the island chain. As a result, only minor fluctuations in trade wind strength are expected through the middle of next week, with trades holding at moderate to locally breezy levels. The trades may strengthen to breezy levels Thursday and Friday as a new strong high builds to the distant north-northwest. A cold front moving southward far to the north of the islands could bring a decrease in the trades next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of moisture moving into the eastern end of the state will keep some showery trade wind weather in place over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island this morning, with rather dry conditions prevailing over the remainder of the state. The deeper moisture will expand to the rest of the island chain this afternoon and tonight, then linger through Monday. This will keep showery conditions in place for windward areas, with leeward sections of the island seeing more showers as well. A drier more stable airmass should provide more typical trade wind weather Monday night through Wednesday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas along with the stray leeward spillover. Troughing aloft building southward toward the islands could bring a period of wetter trades once again Thursday through next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will persist today through early this week. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas during the overnight to early morning hours, but a few showers may make it over to leeward areas at times. VFR conditions will generally prevail across most of the state, but brief MVFR conditions will be possible in any passing showers. However, with increased cloud cover and shower activity, windward portions of the Big Island may see more frequent periods of MVFR conditions this morning.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for windward portions of the Big Island. These conditions will likely improve by mid morning today.

Marine

A high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon for the typical windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. This SCA will likely continue into next weekend.
A small, long to medium period south (170-180 degree) swell will peak today and produce up to head high surf along south facing shores. This swell energy will slowly decrease on Monday and Tuesday. Another long period south swell will arrive next weekend, boosting surf heights along south facing shores. Moderate trade winds will keep small east chop into next week. No significant swells are expected to reach north and west facing shores for the next seven days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov