Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 91. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 71 to 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 91. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 78. North winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 91. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 92. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 92. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 92. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through the rest of the work week as high pressure remains far to the northeast of the islands. Trades will gradually weaken as the high drifts northeast over the weekend. An upper trough developing over the islands will enhance showers Friday through early next week. Trades will gradually veer southeast early next week as a ridge drifts over the state. Light to gentle southeast flow will promote land- seabreeze pattern with afternoon interior convection through much of next week.

Discussion

A nearly stationary surface high located roughly 1100 miles northeast of the state is generating locally breezy easterly trade winds across the islands. Latest satellite and radar imagery show scattered to isolated clouds and showers focused along windward and mauka regions. Typical tradewind diurnal pattern is expected to continue with clouds and showers easing along windward areas this afternoon, except for Kona slopes which will see and increase in clouds and showers.
The high far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands will remain nearly stationary through Friday before slowly moving northeast, further away from the state this weekend. As a result, the locally breezy trades will persist through Friday, followed by a gradual reduction in speeds from Saturday onward. Expect a continuation of typical trade wind showers through the weekend, favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and morning hours. A shower or two could make it to leeward sections on the smaller islands, especially Friday through the weekend.
Starting Friday, moisture associated with the remnants of former Tropical Depression 14E will begin to move into the island chain. Upper troughing will move in at about the same time, resulting in an increase in shower coverage and intensity Friday through as late as Sunday night. Although isolated thunderstorms still cannot be ruled out over the coastal waters near the western end of the state, latest models have backed off of this potential slightly from previous runs. Given that it is still a few days out, we will continue to fine tune the details over the next several days.
A low pressure system far to the northwest will start to push the associated ridge axis of the surface high southward towards the main Hawaiian Islands, potentially reaching the state by next Tuesday. Trade winds will gradually become light to gentle, then veer out of the southeast as early as Monday night through much of next week. This pattern will allow development of daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. Although the state will be in an drier airmass, expect a hybrid or convective shower pattern, featuring localized afternoon interior showers along with a few across windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trades will remain in place through the next several days. Clouds and showers will primarily focus over windward and mountain areas and will be greatest in coverage and intensity during the night time and early morning hours. Pockets of MVFR ceilings and visibility can be observed in the heavier showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 9000 feet for areas downwind (south through west) of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through the next few days.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will likely continue for portions of the Big Island and Maui, and could spread to the other islands later today.

Marine

A ridge far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will keep fresh to locally strong trade winds in the forecast through Saturday. The ridge will weaken and wind speeds will decrease on Sunday as a low deepens northwest of the islands. Winds will shift to southeasterlies from Monday onward. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for windier waters around Maui and the Big Island through Friday, but may be extended into Saturday.
Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline as the current small south swell eases. Background swells are expected through the weekend.
Small surf along north facing shores will continue today due to a short-period north-northeast swell. A similar size north- northeast swell is expected to arrive Thursday night and Friday. A slightly larger, mid-period north-northwest swell is expected late Sunday through the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to remain rough and choppy through the weekend, trending down early next week as wind speeds taper off.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov