West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 70. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 60 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A land and sea breeze pattern is expected through Thursday, with sea breezes allowing for the development of a few daytime heating driven showers each afternoon, while land breezes keep most showers offshore or very near the coast each night. Moderate trade winds and a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern should return Friday, with this pattern then holding through early next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 175 miles northwest of Kauai, while a 1031 mb high is now over 2000 miles northeast of Honolulu. Light winds prevail, with land breezes present statewide. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear conditions, with radar imagery showing only a few showers out over the coastal waters. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and timing the returning trades back into the island chain.
A land and sea breeze pattern is expected to prevail through early Thursday, as an approaching front keeps the gradient weak. The front is forecast to stall out just northwest of Kauai tonight, then weaken into a trough and shift westward through the remainder of the work week while ridging rebuilds to the northwest of the islands. This should allow the trade winds to slowly return from east to west across the state Thursday and Thursday night, with moderate trades then holding in place Friday through early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, sea breezes will drive the development of a few showers over interior and mauka areas this afternoon, with showers holding mainly offshore or very near the coast tonight. The one exception may be Kauai where moisture associated with the front may edge close enough to bring a few more showers onshore tonight. Although the trades will begin to return Thursday, the combination of daytime heating and localized sea breezes will likely allow for some leeward and/or interior shower development in the afternoon once again, with coverage the highest over Kauai where closer to the front. More typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward and mauka showers should then return Friday and prevail through early next week.

Aviation

Weak land breezes and mostly clear skies this morning will be replaced by light sea breezes and cumulus build-ups this afternoon. Clouds and scattered light showers will become focused over island interiors by early afternoon, then weaken and taper off after sunset. Brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities are likely in showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail all areas.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect or anticipated at this time.

Marine

A cold front moving through the northwest offshore waters this morning will hang up and linger over these waters north northwest of the islands through early Friday. This scenario has kept the pressure gradient weak across the state and created light east southeast or more variable local coastal water breezes across most of the near and offshore waters. Light winds will continue into Friday until high pressure from the west expands in north of the state. This will re-establish moderate to locally fresh trade winds this weekend.
A moderate size northwest (310 degree), medium period swell will be building in across the island chain today. This latest swell will reinforce Monday's northwest swell and peak surf to well over head high (as high as double head high along better exposed Kauai and Oahu north and northwest coasts) today and Thursday. The swell will become more north (340-350 degree) tonight into Thursday as it peaks out. The north swell will begin to subside Friday and fade out through the weekend. Surf along south-facing shores will generally remain hip to chest high through the week in response to a series of small, medium period south southeast swells mixing into the longer period south southwest background. Very small chop will occur along eastern shores through late week under these light and mainly variable breezes.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov