Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 76. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 87. Light winds.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86. Light winds.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 93. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 75 to 86. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will ease today, and land and sea breezes will overpower the weaker trade winds this weekend into early next week. The air mass will be somewhat dry, with mainly isolated showers favoring windward areas at night and interior sections each afternoon. A shallow band of moisture may increase showers on Kauai Saturday night and spread to Oahu on Sunday.

Discussion

Moderate trade winds are easing as stable and somewhat dry conditions remain in place. Trades are on the decline as a surface ridge about 600 miles north of Kauai is weakened by an advancing North Pacific front. A ridge aloft is maintaining stable conditions with a strong inversion between around 5,000 to 6,000 ft, and a narrow band of shallow moisture is producing scattered light showers over windward slopes of Maui County, while mostly dry conditions prevail elsewhere. The declining trade winds will continue to focus modest rainfall over Maui County today, and afternoon sea breezes will drive higher shower chances over leeward terrain on those islands. Aside from a few showers over leeward Big Island this afternoon, showers will be minimal elsewhere.
Trade winds will decline this weekend as the surface ridge to the north is weakened and pushed toward the state. Overnight land breezes and daytimes sea breezes will become more prevalent, resulting in a hybrid trade wind/convection pattern. Modest rainfall will favor windward slopes at night, and sea breezes will drive afternoon clouds and a few showers over interior terrain. A shallow band of moisture moving down from the north will bring higher shower chances to Kauai Saturday night and possibly to Oahu Sunday.
The surface ridge will move southward near Kauai late Monday and Tuesday, further disrupting the trade wind flow. A purely land and sea breeze pattern is expected, though shower chances will remain low. Trade winds will likely return during the middle of next week as surface high pressure rebuilds to the north.

Aviation

Weak trade wind flow will develop today allowing for local land and sea breezes. Expect localized clouds and showers to develop over the interior during the afternoon, then dissipate shortly after sunset. VFR will prevail, with brief MVFR possible under passing showers.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, nor expected through Friday.

Marine

A surface ridge located about 500 nm north of Honolulu early this morning continues to produce light to moderate trade winds across the main Hawaiian Islands. A front will move down over the north central Pacific to the north of the ridge. This will push the ridge south closer to the state through early Saturday, which will cause the trade winds to become light to locally moderate tonight. The ridge will weaken as it moves down into the vicinity of the islands this weekend. This will likely cause the background flow to become light and variable across the western islands, while weak trade winds may linger across the eastern end of the island chain from Saturday into early next week. Note that a large northwest swell arriving Tuesday may result in Small Craft Advisory conditions due to combined seas of 10 feet or greater developing over portions of the coastal waters.
The current medium-period northwest (310-320 degrees) swell will produce moderate surf along most north and west facing shores through early Saturday. A new, moderate, long-period north- northwest (320-330 degrees) swell arriving Saturday will likely maintain moderate surf along exposed north and west facing shores into early next week. The large, long-period northwest (320 degrees) swell mentioned above may cause surf to reach the High Surf Warning criteria along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands starting late Tuesday. Surf may also be near the High Surf Advisory threshold along portions of the west facing shores of the Big Island starting Tuesday night.
Small surf will persist along south facing shores due to a series of medium- to long-period south to south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swells moving through the area. A long-period south- southwest (200-210 degrees) swell will likely arrive Monday, resulting in above seasonal average surf along south facing shores early next week. Elsewhere, the weakening trade winds will result in diminishing surf along east facing shores during the next couple of days, with nearly flat conditions possible along most east facing shores by late this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov