Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 87 to 92. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 86 to 91. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 61 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 61 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 78 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 70. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds will continue today with ridge just north of Kauai. Over the weekend the ridge is expected to lift northward, allowing trade winds to gradually return and strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy trade wind conditions are expected by Sunday, and persist into the middle of the new week. Very stable conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next week.

Discussion

As expected, no significant changes to the forecast or forecast philosophy with the morning package. The PoPs and associated fields were updated to reflect the latest guidance from the NBM from Monday night onwards. A relatively dry trade wind pattern is expected, through mid week, with a more typical trade wind pattern expected Thursday onwards.
An east to west oriented ridge remains north of Kauai, maintaining light winds across the state. As expected, clouds largely dissipated over the islands overnight with land breezes that formed in the light wind regime. Some cloud development is expected over the islands today with afternoon sea breezes. Chances of showers will remain very limited as the inversion heights remains below 5 kft, which will keep cloud development very shallow.
The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend, which will allow the trades to gradually return from south to north. Moderate to locally breezy conditions are expected by Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. Clouds and showers will return to the more typical windward and mauka areas, however shower activity will remain limited across the entire state over the weekend due to very stable conditions from low inversion levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier than normal for this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern should return during the middle to latter half of the week with rising inversion heights.

Aviation

A weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain light winds across the state today. As a result, daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes are expected to develop. Then winds will gradually strengthen tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure lifts slightly northward. Shower activity is expected to remain limited through the period due to the presence of a relatively dry air mass. VFR conditions will generally prevail, with brief MVFR conditions possible through this evening.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for leeward sections of the Big Island. These conditions should improve later this morning as land breezes help to dispel the lower cloud cover.

Marine

A weak elongated ridge in the northern offshore waters will hold in place over the region. Expect wind speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold through Saturday. High pressure looks to redevelop north of the state over the weekend allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the potential for SCA conditions across typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
The current south-southwest swell will peak today and steadily decline through the weekend. Another, yet bigger moderate long period south- southwest swell will build through Saturday, peak Sunday night into Monday and could reach High Surf Advisory level criteria of 10 feet at the peak of the event. A moderate long period south swell is expected to reach HSA levels late next week too.
The current small northwest swell continues to decline. However, a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will build in late this afternoon to give north facing shores a small bump. Wind waves for east facing shores have diminished significantly and will remain small into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov