Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 63 to 75. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 45 to 55. East winds up to 25 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Update

The forecast has been updated to include a Wind Advisory for the Big Island Summits through 6 PM HST this evening.

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through midweek, then ease from Thursday into the weekend as the surface ridge weakens to the north. A dry airmass will limit rainfall chances through much of the week, with the best chances remaining over windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. A slight increase in moisture associated with a mid- to upper-level disturbance could lead to better shower coverage later in the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Discussion

Short-term guidance shows dry trade wind conditions prevailing through midweek as a deep layer ridge remains in place. The overnight upper air soundings reflect this pattern, showing strong subsidence inversions around 5,000 to 6,000 ft with limited moisture available. Any brief showers that form will favor the typical windward and mauka locations, primarily during the overnight and early morning periods.
The mid- to upper-level ridge will begin to weaken during the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak upper low settles north of Kauai and a mid-level trough approaches from the east. The surface ridge will respond by weakening, resulting in the trades easing to light to moderate levels. Upper-level height falls combined with increasing low-level moisture could lead to better windward shower coverage, especially over the weekend as the mid-level trough moves through from east to west. Additionally, a few showers could form over dry leeward areas during the afternoon where localized sea breezes develop.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected through Wednesday. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail with brief periods of MVFR possible in the overnight to early morning hours along windward and mountain slopes.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration over north and east sections of Maui and the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of all island mountains due to the breezy trade winds.

Marine

A surface ridge north of the state will support moderate to locally strong trade winds through midweek. The ridge may weaken somewhat thereafter, with trade wind speeds slowly diminishing in response. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for the typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through Wednesday. As the trades ease during the second half of the week, seas will also subside, and the SCA will go away.
The medium-period S swell of the past several days will trend lower today. Surf should return to background levels by Thursday along south facing shores. A small, longer period SSW swell should fill in on Friday and peak over the weekend with surf heights near or slightly above the summer average.
A small, short-period NNW swell will decline tonight into Tuesday night. Another small, short-period NNW swell may arrive around Thursday. Short-period wind waves will support small to moderate surf along E facing shores through Wednesday. Small, long-period E swells from increased E Pacific tropical cyclone activity may arrive (low confidence) from Wednesday onward, leading to a subtle increase in surf heights.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov