Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 72. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Persistent high pressure far north of the islands will support locally breezy trade winds through the weekend. Passing showers will periodically dampen most windward areas, with some showers occasionally spreading leeward, especially night and morning.

Discussion

Persistent surface high pressure far N of the islands will support locally breezy trade winds for the foreseeable future. A slow-moving trough aloft just N of the islands will bring some modest mid-level cooling as it drifts S the next couple of days, elevating and weakening the subsidence inversion. This will allow orographic lift to produce a few showers, in addition to random shower clusters arriving on the trades. These will occasionally dampen windward areas, with some showers occasionally spreading leeward, most active night and morning. In contrast, daytime heating will lead to afternoon and evening showers over the Kona slopes.
A low-level trough approaching from the E (remnants of former T.S. Emilia) is forecast to dampen out as it reaches the longitude of the islands Thursday and Friday, but there may be a brief period of slightly weaker winds from late Wednesday into Thursday. While PWAT may diminish tonight into Wednesday, the nearby passage of these remnants may lead to increased PWAT/windward showers.
A mid-level ridge will rebuild over the islands by the weekend, likely reducing shower coverage/frequency.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will deliver low cigs and SHRA to windward and mauka locations through the forecast period. Brief MVFR conds can be expected within SHRA but VFR should generally prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward locations of all islands for mtn obsc. Conds should improve by mid-morning.

Marine

An area of surface high pressure north of the state will remain nearly stationary over the next several days and produce moderate to locally strong trade winds across the local waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Thursday morning for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island and will likely need to be extended through late this week.
A small, medium- period, background south swell will linger this morning and produce small surf along south facing beaches. Another small, long- period, south swell is expected to arrive late today and peak on Wednesday, then decline through early this weekend. Guidance introduces a 3 foot, long- period, southerly swell late Sunday into early next week. This swell will have originated from a slow moving gale low, currently east of New Zealand. Expect a bump up in surf to above August averages.
Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through this week for north facing shores. Breezy trade winds will bring choppy surf conditions to east facing shores through the remainder of this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov