Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 45 to 55. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will ease briefly later today through Thursday, then return to breezy levels Friday through the weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka locations, particularly during the overnight and early morning periods as areas of moisture move through.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains in decent agreement, depicting a mostly dry trade wind pattern prevailing today as surface high pressure remains centered north of the area. A broad surface trough (remnants of former TC Emilia), located just under 700 miles east of Hilo this morning, will move through the area from east to west tonight through Thursday night, likely weakening the local trades to moderate levels. This broad surface trough, combined with a mid-level trough and an increase in low-level moisture, could lead to better shower coverage, primarily for windward and mauka locations.
Breezy trade wind conditions are expected to return Friday through the weekend as the aforementioned trough begins to track away from the state and the deep-layer ridge strengthens. A modest increase in low-level moisture, accompanying another low- to mid- level trough passing to the south, could translate to increasing shower coverage Sunday through Monday, most likely over the eastern end of the state.

Aviation

Surface high pressure north of the area will help generate moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the area through the forecast period. Expect showers to stick mainly to windward locations this morning with a few showers spilling over to the leeward side. Some of the more robust showers may bring brief periods of MVFR cigs and visibilities. VFR conditions expected elsewhere. Shower activity is forecast to diminish by late this morning into the afternoon, before returning again tonight.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue through the weekend, with a brief easing expected late today through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect through 6 pm this evening, with winds expected to hold below advisory levels tonight and Thursday. Winds will likely return to SCA levels Thursday night through the weekend.
Several small long-period swells from the south and southeast will produce some small surf along south facing shores through the work week. A more significant south swell will arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peak above the summertime average Monday, then slowly lower through the middle of next week.
Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week for north facing shores. Little change in east shore surf is expected during the next 7 days, with surf remaining near or slightly below normal levels.
The combination of the full moon and water levels running around 0.5 ft higher than normal should produce minor coastal flooding each afternoon along the shorelines across the state beginning 8/17 and likely continuing through 8/20. A Coastal Flood Statement will eventually be needed as we get closer to the event.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov