Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 62 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 49 to 56. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 73. East winds up to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 91. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade wind conditions will persist through Friday, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is closely monitoring newly formed Tropical Depression One far east-southeast of the state tracking westward. While it is too early to determine the exact impacts, a transition to a wet and windy period is likely over the weekend through early next week as this tropical cyclone approaches and moves into the area. For updates on the system's development, refer to the latest advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains consistent, showing breezy trade wind conditions continuing through Friday due to strong high pressure well north of the state. Showers will predominantly affect windward and mauka areas, with some reaching leeward sections. A mid-level trough moving from east to west today, combined with increasing low-level moisture, will likely enhance shower coverage later today through Friday. This trough may also weaken or lift the strong subsidence inversion, increasing rainfall chances over leeward areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.
For the extended period (Friday night through early next week), guidance shows Tropical Depression One becoming a Hurricane over the weekend as it passes south of the Big Island. Forecast confidence is increasing that the system will impact our local weather conditions, regardless of its exact development and track over the next several days. A wet and windy period is expected, potentially beginning as early as Friday night into Saturday over the eastern part of the state, then statewide later Saturday through early next week.
Given the potential for prolonged heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding could occur if the rain becomes concentrated. Depending on the system's development, watches for the potential tropical cyclone may be issued later today or tonight for parts of the state. For further details on this system's development, refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trades will remain through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA should mainly be focused over windward and mauka locations, with isolated spillover to leeward sides. Brief MVFR conds will be possible in any SHRA, but generally VFR conds should prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low level turb downwind of the terrain of all islands.

Marine

Fresh to strong trades will prevail during the next couple days, then ramp up to strong to Gale force levels this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters east of Oahu through early Saturday. In fact, winds could get even stronger this weekend as Tropical Cyclone One nears the islands from the east. The marine forecast this weekend into early next week will be highly dependent upon the track and degree of development of this system, and watches may be needed for portions of the waters later today or tonight.
A small long-period northwest swell will peak today, then slowly decline on Friday. Surf will return to typical summertime flat levels over the weekend through the middle of next week aside from some trade wind swell wrap.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small and below the summertime average through early next week. A new long-period south swell arriving Tuesday and Wednesday next week, could build surf back up close to the summertime average.
Surf along east facing shores will remain near seasonal levels through Friday, then rise above normal over the weekend into early next week as the winds strengthen over and upstream of the islands. Depending on the track and degree of development of a tropical system approaching from the east, surf could potentially reach advisory levels over some east facing shores over the weekend into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov