Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 70 to 78. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 71 to 78. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Cloudy with showers likely. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72. Northeast winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 54 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 61 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Cloudy with showers likely. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Tropical Storm Hone continues to move westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. High pressure far north of the state will maintain a typical moderate to breezy trade wind pattern through much of the week. Tropical Cyclone Gilma far east of the state will weaken as it approaches later this week and bring the potential for more rain.

Discussion

Satellite imagery continues to show Tropical Storm Hone moving westward away from the Hawaiian Islands this morning, with high pressure re-establishing itself as the dominate feature far north of the state. This will bring the return of moderate to breezy trade winds with isolated to scattered showers over windward and mauka areas.
Dry air will continue to filter across the state today as the moisture field associated with Hone departs to the west. This swath of drier air will be short-lived as CIMSS MIMIC precipitable water imagery continues to show a broad moisture plume extending well out ahead of Tropical Cyclone Gilma. This moisture plume is expected to move into the area late tonight. This will bring an uptick in windward and mauka showers through the end of the week.
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows that Gilma has moved into the Central Pacific Basin this morning. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will assume responsibility of Gilma later today. The current forecast shows Gilma passing near the islands sometime on Friday as a Post-Tropical/Remnant Low. This will bring another break in the trade wind pattern. Local impacts will depend on the track of this weakening system. Consensus continues to show developing troughing northwest of the region will cause Gilma to slowly recurve upon approach to the islands, potentially leading to a period of warmer weather featuring higher humidity and light southeast winds. A more southerly track would bring a greater probability of wet trade wind weather. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the progress of Gilma as it inches closer to the state.
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Hector will follow closely behind Gilma as potentially a weak surface trough with a diffuse moisture plume sometime Saturday night into Sunday. Little to no impacts are expected from Hector at this time.

Aviation

Tropical Storm Hone will continue to drift slowly west today, away from the islands. In its wake, expect a return to typical summertime trade wind weather with scattered showers possible along windward portions of the islands. Brief MVFR conditions may accompany some of the showers, but not expecting anything widespread. Shower coverage looks increase again tonight, but again, mainly for windward areas.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue today as Tropical Storm Hone tracks westward and away from the Hawaiian waters. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken over the region through the week as Hone continues westward and Hurricane Gilma approaches from the east. A Small Craft Advisory is now in place for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through this afternoon. Winds should ease into the moderate to fresh category tonight through midweek, likely allowing the advisory to be lowered.
Although the current forecast by the National Hurricane Center shows Gilma quickly weakening as it approaches and passing the islands to the north later this week through the weekend, any deviation in the forecast track could have a more significant impact on the Hawaiian nearshore waters this weekend. The current forecast has Gilma passing north of the state Friday into the weekend as a remnant low. If that scenario is realized, the local winds could become light and variable. Refer to the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center for more information on Gilma.
Surf along east facing shores will quickly ease through midweek as the easterly winds trend down. An upward trend is possible later in the week, as a medium-period easterly swell from Gilma begins to fill in.
Surf along south facing shores will hold into midweek due to a combination of a small south swell and some residual short- to medium-period south-southeast swell generated by Hone. A downward trend back to the summertime average is expected through the second half of the week.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain near the seasonal average this week, but could slightly rise this weekend for north facing shores as Gilma approaches the region and a small northwest swell fills in.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov