Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 76. North winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 44 to 56. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate east to east-southeast winds will continue with passing windward and mauka showers through today. As winds weaken Thursday into the weekend, the development of afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes can be expected. An upper level disturbance may enhance showers this weekend. Then moderate trades may return early next week.

Discussion

A swath of increased low level moisture is making its way northwestward across the western end of the island chain early this morning, with low clouds and showers mainly favoring windward and mauka areas. However, with a southeasterly steering component, some showers will be able to better circumnavigate the island terrain and move across leeward areas at times. In addition, a weak mid level low northeast of Kauai may help to enhance some of these showers as the swath of moisture moves up the island chain through the early morning hours. By late morning, drier air will move in from east to west and help to reduce some of the shower coverage.
A surface ridge centered well northeast of the state will maintain moderate trades through this evening before a combination of lows and troughs weaken the ridge and allow the trades to become light to moderate through the weekend. This will allow for an expansion in sea breeze activity across the island chain, increasing cloud build up and showers across inland trade wind-protected areas each afternoon. Whether or not winds become light enough to allow for a more pure sea breeze pattern is yet to be seen. Forecast guidance continues to show a mid level cutoff low setting up over the state this weekend, which would increase the potential for shower enhancement Saturday and/or Sunday with the increased instability aloft and allow for heavier downpours in showers.
Heading into early next week, while forecast guidance begins to diverge more significantly, the mid level low will eventually begin to fill in and lift northeastward, allowing the pressure gradient to increase and trades to become moderate once again.

Aviation

A ridge north of the state will maintain the trade winds over the region today, with clouds and showers focused over windward areas. A batch of clouds moved through the islands overnight, initially causing some mountain obscuration to the Big Island, Maui and Molokai. That area shifted to the west around midnight, bringing mountain obscuration to Oahu and Kauai. AIRMET Sierra currently in effect for those islands will likely be dropped sometime in the next several hours as the batch of clouds lifts north and west as it thins. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail over leeward areas.
Background winds are expected to gradually become lighter Wednesday night onward, which would allow for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes.

Marine

Surface high pressure centered approximately 1,100 nautical miles from Oahu is creating a tight enough pressure gradient across the islands to maintain generally moderate trade winds through the day. Local channeled winds, especially through the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, will frequently attain fresh magnitudes. High pressure northeast of the state will weaken as a low and associated front north of the islands slowly approaches and works on the high from the west. This will slacken the high's gradient over the islands and will result in late week trades falling off to gentle to locally moderate breezes. High pressure northwest of the islands will build east through the remainder of the week. This will reestablish the regional gradient and ultimately restrengthen trades back to moderate to locally fresh speeds Sunday into Monday.
An ongoing small, short to medium period northwest north swell has reached its peak, will hold today and then begin the gradual decline tonight into Thursday. A pair of overlapping small, short to medium period north swells will keep small surf in place along north-facing shores this weekend. There is the potential for the arrival of a larger long period northwest swell Monday and Tuesday from late week gales in association with a Gulf of Alaska frontal passage. As of now, this swell will generate surf that will likely be below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria. The current near 2 foot, long period south southwest swell peaked early this morning and will hold through this afternoon before declining late this evening. A new and larger, long period more southerly swell originating from gales east southeast of New Zealand is timed to fill in Saturday night or early Sunday, peak Sunday and then hold into Monday. This swell will provide a sizable late season boost to south shore surf, potentially pushing surf to near HSA levels.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov