Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 75. North winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to locally moderate trade winds are expected through the weekend, bringing a few showers to windward areas. Afternoon sea breezes will bring clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas. A low aloft will destabilize the island atmosphere Saturday night and Sunday, bringing the potential for some locally heavy showers and a chance for thunderstorms. Expect stronger trade winds to return next week.

Discussion

Light to moderate trade winds are being supported by a weakening high pressure cell far NE of the islands. Satellite and radar images show limited patches of stable and showery low clouds approaching most islands from the E, with showers in greater coverage upstream of windward portions of Maui and the Big Island.
The high to the distant NE will weaken today and trade winds will ease as the local low-level pressure gradient slackens. The light trades will persist through the weekend, allowing land and sea breezes to prevail over sheltered leeward areas. Nighttime land breezes will lead to mostly clear conditions leeward, with just a few windward showers. The afternoon sea breezes will drive cloud and shower formation over leeward and interior areas.
A low aloft currently about 800 miles NNW of Kauai near 36N 162W will dig S toward the islands through Saturday, and pass close to the islands Saturday night and Sunday. While there remains some uncertainty as to where the core of the low will eventually move, it will likely destabilize the island atmosphere during its closest approach. The potential for thunderstorms and/or locally heavy showers remains in the forecast for portions of the area. PWAT will be somewhat limited, thus widespread coverage of rainfall is not expected, but the showers that do occur will have the potential to become heavy. One of the more likely areas for this to occur would be the Big Island's Kona slopes on Sunday afternoon.
Trade wind speeds will increase early next week as new high pressure to the distant NW builds eastward. Stability will also increase as the low aloft weakens and moves away to the NE.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate trade winds over the region through this evening and possibly beyond. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected. VFR flight conditions will prevail at most locations, but brief MVFR ceilings and visibility will be possible within passing showers.
A weak eddy just southwest of the Big Island has kept the Kona and Kau coasts shrouded in clouds most of the night. Lee-side clearing should occur shortly after sunrise. In the afternoon, cumulus build- ups will redevelop along south and west facing slopes of the Big Island and linger through the evening.

Marine

Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected through Saturday, as a series of fronts pass far north of the state. Isolated thunderstorms could be possible Saturday night through Sunday for the windward waters as an upper low moves through the area. Winds should then gradually strengthen Sunday into the first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state. Winds could potentially reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island by next week Monday.
For north facing shores, a pair of overlapping small, short period north swells should maintain small surf in place through this weekend. A short lived small, short to medium period northeast swell is expected Saturday night through Sunday. This will also give east facing shores a slight bump on Sunday. Although there is some uncertainty on how strong the event will be, there is the potential for the arrival of a moderate long period north- northwest swell as early as Sunday and likely peaking next Monday, below advisory levels for north facing shores. This swell could linger through the middle of next week as it slowly fades.
The current south southwest swell will continue to gradually ease today before a moderate, long period south swell is expected to slowly fill in Saturday, peak Sunday and hold into Monday then gradually decline through the middle of next week. This swell will may boost surf along south facing shores to near advisory levels during its peak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov