Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 69. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 83. Light winds.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 80 to 86. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 86. Light winds.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 55 to 62. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 67 to 86. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 52 to 69. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 68 to 87. South winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Lighter large scale winds today will allow land and sea breezes to expand in coverage over all islands. Conditions should remain fairly stable and dry through Wednesday, with low clouds and a few light showers each afternoon will favor island interior and mountain areas. Rainfall trends will increase from Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front moves into and stalls out over the islands. Periods of passing showers and moderate to locally breezy northeasterly winds, wet trade wind weather, will linger into next weekend.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning remains fairly stable looking with bands of stable clouds near the islands and a few cirrus clouds drifting into the state from the north. Expect a light and variable wind pattern to start today with expanding land and sea breezes over all islands lasting through Wednesday.
The upper level subtropical ridge axis will linger just south of the state through Wednesday keeping fairly stable weather conditions in the forecast. Expect brief showers in a light wind afternoon onshore sea breeze weather regime. Clouds and a few showers will develop by late morning to afternoon over island mountain and interior sections through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will remain on the lighter side due to the large scale atmospheric stability.
By Thursday, long range model guidance continues to show a shallow cold front creeping into the western islands from the northwest direction. Widespread showers and breezy trade winds will develop along the weakening frontal band as it passes through each island. The latest model guidance continues to show this frontal cloud and shower band stalling out near Maui by Friday morning. All islands will benefit from a period of enhanced showers along the frontal band, especially along the windward and mountain slopes of each island. The frontal band will then break apart by Friday afternoon, with remnant unstable cloud bands drifting into each island on the strengthening easterly trade winds, producing a wet trade wind pattern lasting through much of next weekend.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trades will continue to weaken through the rest of today, allowing for land/sea breezes development. Isol SHRA should favor mauka and interior areas of each island due to sea breeze development each afternoon, then clear out overnight with the land breezes. Brief MVFR conds will be possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Light background flow will shift to southeasterlies today. A front will approach from the northwest early this week and keep gentle south to southeast winds in place. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for windward waters due to large swell has been cancelled.
The current northwest (310-320) swell continues to slowly decline this morning, but a High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for affected north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through noon today. The HSA for west facing shores of the Big Island has been cancelled. Surf should drop below advisory levels everywhere by this afternoon. The first of a series of overlapping northwest swells, ranging from large to potentially extra-large, will arrive Tuesday. A larger one will peak Wednesday into Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will remain slightly elevated through today due to a lingering short-period north- northeast swell. Surf along east facing shores will then become small. Surf along south facing shores will see an uptick heading into the week from a series of consecutive southwest pulses. This will result in small to moderate surf, peaking Monday and Tuesday.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least Wednesday as winds remain below warning thresholds. Daytime relative humidity levels may briefly touch critical levels over drier leeward zones. Increasing moisture and rainfall trends will develop from Thursday into next weekend as a weakening cold front moves down the island chain, stalls out and then breaks up near Maui.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until noon HST today for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov