Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 73. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 43 to 54. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 79. East winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 56 to 73. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 86. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

As clouds and showers decrease this morning, light to moderate easterly trades will return. Expect showers to favor windward and mauka areas. Trade winds will increase next week as high pressure strengthens to our north.

Discussion

A surface trough between Oahu and Kauai last night has dissipated across local waters. Overall shower activity has declined over the past 12 hours, and current radar and satellite loops show scattered low clouds to clear skies across most areas this morning. Rainfall has become quite sparse. Patchy broken low clouds are noted across waters upwind from Maui and the Big Island.
Models show that light to locally moderate easterly trade winds will fill in across the state through today and persist through the weekend. That said, winds will likely remain light enough across the state to allow development of localized sea breezes during the afternoon. This hybrid pattern of redeveloping trades and sea breezes will support isolated to scattered showers across windward and mauka areas this morning and tonight with additional isolated showers over island interiors in the afternoon. Strengthening trades on Sunday may hinder sea breeze development, but they may still occur across sheltered leeward areas.
Another front will approach from the northwest today through Sunday. Models continue to show its tail end dissipating before it reaches the state, but remnant moisture will move in on the strengthening trades early next week as high pressure strengthens to the north. These breezy to strong trades will persist through the week and into next weekend. As pockets of moisture ride in on the trades, periodic showers will favor windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Expect mostly dry and stable conditions across the islands today with a weak trough to the northeast and an incoming front to the northwest. Light winds across the region will allow local sea breezes to develop across sheltered locations in the afternoon with land breezes developing overnight. Will see predominately VFR conditions today with isolated showers and low clouds. The exception will be Kauai which will see areas of MVFR continue through the morning hours as residual moisture lingers over the island. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across windward Kauai, with conditions improving later this morning.
Will see a return of moderate to breezy trade wind conditions by early next week.

Marine

Trade winds will show weakening trends through Sunday morning with land and sea breeze areas expanding over the near shore waters of each island. A strong high pressure system building in north of the state will cause trade wind speeds to strengthen to moderate levels by Sunday afternoon, then becoming fresh to strong trade winds from Monday night through the end of next week.
Another northwest (330 deg) swell will move through island waters later today keeping surf heights elevated along exposed north and west facing shores. The next northwest swell will move into the Hawaii region from Monday into Tuesday. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) will continue through this afternoon as the next swell will rapidly move into the islands and increase surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui. Surf heights will likely decline with surf heights falling below HSA levels by tonight.
Elsewhere, a small south swell will continue through this weekend, and then diminish early next week.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Wind speeds will remain far below that needed for critical fire danger. Trade winds will strengthen next week, but relative humidity values will be high enough to continue to preclude any critical fire weather conditions.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov