Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 75 to 81. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 66 to 72. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and haze. Highs 76 to 81. South winds around 10 mph.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 63 to 74. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 83. South winds around 10 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny and haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 64 to 69. South winds around 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny and haze. Highs 80 to 85. South winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny and haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 61 to 66. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 76. South winds around 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 67 to 83. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 56 to 72. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 83. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Today will be another fairly dry day as a stalling cold front northwest of the state will result in light to gentle southerlies. This relatively light wind pattern will favor the development of daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes. Southwesterly winds will strengthen over the western third of the state in the coming days as energy diving down in a Central Pacific trough pushes the front in proximity of Hawaii. The mid week passage of this boundary across the northern waters will likely be the impetus to statewide beneficial rain and strengthened breezy winds.

Discussion

Overnight satellite imagery depicts convergent bands of warmer clouds streaming up across the state ahead of an approaching front. Light streamer showers within these lower clouds are mainly moving north across the Kauai Channel and east of Big Island. Haze across the eastern half of the state from Kileau's emissions and periods of cirrus are drifting across from the north as cooler mid to upper level air overrides a couple of Central Pacific frontal boundaries. Despite decreased eruption activity over Halemaumau Crater's hot spot on Big Island, a weak veering wind regime around the southern half of the dial will transport SO2 emissions and resultant vog across Maui County and Oahu through tonight. A fairly dry resident atmosphere all the way up with regional 1″ to 1.25″ precipitable waters (climatological lower quartile for early January) translating to low to mid 60 dew point air at the surface will guarantee many communities will experience mostly sunny skies today. Interior clouds will build in by the afternoon as the mid day sea breezes become better established. A near stationary front encountering island ridging will begin to slowly advance eastward tonight before stalling again today. This scenario will maintain a weak southerly wind regime of due south winds around Maui County and Big Island, veering more southwesterly over Oahu and Kauai through Monday. Due to the weak background wind flow brought on by the vicinity front, localized land and sea breeze activity will remain the dominant wind pattern. This will favor very limited daytime leeward cloud and shower development with clearing star-gazing night skies.
Hawaii and its surrounding waters will remain on the northeastern nose of upper ridging centered far off to the southwest. Energy moving into and deepening a Central Pacific upper level trough will have this trough diving down into the area mid next week, sweeping across the region and driving the aforementioned stalled front through (at least) the western third of the island chain. Southwesterly flow will strengthen across the western half of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening ahead of this deepening upper trough as it rotates through the far northern waters. This will initiate a transition from light diurnally- driven breezes to more widespread strengthened southerly-becoming- northeasterly flow. This flow will tap into a more moist southern air mass and generate pre-frontal leeward area clouds and showers Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance times the front to reach Kauai Tuesday evening, then slowly move it into the central islands Wednesday evening before stalling and dissipating. This frontal passage is expected to offer beneficial rain and breezy statewide northeasterlies for the majority of the island archipelago.
Mid to lower level streamline convergence along the dissipating boundary, along with an abundance of higher upstream moisture, will keep rain chances in the picture through the latter part of next week. Primarily eastern island precipitation caught within returning trades will focus over windward and mauka areas as high pressure builds in the front's wake. Long-term NWP model guidance is hinting at the aforementioned upper trough evolving into a closed-off low over the eastern end of the state next weekend. This scenario would enhance statewide rainfall and slightly increase storm chances. No need to put the cart ahead of the horse as the development and progression of the upper trough will determine the long term solution of this low.

Aviation

Light southerly background winds will prevail across the islands through the weekend with ridging in place over the state. This will allow for the development of overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes. Aside from a few passing high clouds, expect mainly clear skies overnight with clouds and a few showers over the interior tomorrow afternoon.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Expect several days of warning level surf along exposed north and west facing shores may last through Wednesday night, as overlapping significant swell energy moves into the Hawaii region. The current west-northwest (290-310 degree) swell is peaking this morning. Reported swell heights at the buoys continue to run slightly above wave model guidance. Surf along exposed north and west facing shores of all islands are peaking well above warning thresholds this morning, and will only slightly decline later today, holding above warning levels into Monday.
The next round of significant northwest swell will arrive late Monday. Surf heights may briefly drop below warning thresholds by Monday morning, however this next round of significant swell energy will will swiftly build surf heights back above warning levels from Monday night through Wednesday.
The High Surf Warning (HSW) was extended in time through Monday afternoon for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, as well as north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was also extended through Monday afternoon for all waters except Maalea Bay as 10 ft or higher seas are expected for all waters exposed to the northwest swell. This HSW and SCA will likely be extended in time to cover the multiple rounds of significant swell energy moving though Hawaiian Island waters.
Surf heights along east and south facing shores will remain small through the forecast period.
The surface ridge over the state will shift southeastward in response to an approaching cold front. Light and variable winds over the western half of the state will give way to moderate to fresh southwesterlies today, then moderate to strong northwest winds from Tuesday night to Wednesday. Across the eastern end of the state, gentle to locally fresh east to southeast winds will hold through Monday then become light and variable by Tuesday. The front may reach Kauai as early as Tuesday night with moderate northerly winds filling in behind it.

Fire weather

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next week. Light southerly flow with local land/sea breezes will continue into early next week, with relative humidities staying above critical levels through the forecast period. A front is expected to move through part of the state during the middle to late part of next week, initiating breezy northeasterlies and much needed rain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, Big Island South.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov