West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 79. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 75 to 80. East winds around 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 72. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 41 to 52. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 77. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 77. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 66 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 54 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 67 to 83. East winds around 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to locally breezes east trades to southeast winds will persist this weekend. Upper ridging over the islands will increase stability and, along with this resident dry air mass, will limit shower activity. East trades will better focus isolated showers over windward exposures and mauka slopes with the exception of select interior areas. Rain chances will increase from the west late next week.

Discussion

Upper ridging is building in from the west and this will result in stable weekend weather conditions across the Hawaiian Islands. Mid to upper level ridging nudging in from the west, along with a near one inch precipitable water air mass over the state, will significantly suppress shower activity across the region the next several days. Pre-dawn radar is very quiet with the only nocturnal light shower activity occurring far south of Kauai, possibly forming within the island plumes today and advecting west northwest within prevailing east southeast flow. Statewide breezes will likely remain weak enough to allow the development of warmth-of- the-day sea breezes to kick in. These localized breezes will move across more leeward, trade wind-protected areas or slopes. Diurnal heating will generate thicker cloud cover and trigger subsequent showers over far interior areas. Brief showers will produce low accumulations with near quarter inch amounts being confined to the higher elevations through Sunday night.
Surface high pressure located approximately 1,700 miles northeast of the islands has created a tight enough downstream pressure gradient to generally maintain gentle east trades the next several days. Increasing stability from surface ridging to the northeast and upper ridging moving in from the west, within a relatively dry boundary layer, will restrict short term shower behavior. With the island chain remaining on the southwestern periphery of the surface high through early next week, gentle winds will generally remain out of the east or southeast. Western island breezes will become more benign and variable, typically displaying more of a southerly component. Easterlies across the eastern end of the state will be slightly stronger. Weak or near calm interior winds will allow enhanced localized sea breezes to become more active once temperatures warm into the 80s. Sea breezes will promote thicker leeward clouds and increase light shower coverage over more interior communities. A better established east trade flow across the eastern half of the state will produce typical trade wind weather well into next week. Mid to upper level ridging will remain the dominate player in determining drier days heading into the second half of February. Next week's shower behavior will generally be infrequent, at best, and isolated in nature. Periodic thin bands of low to mid layer moisture advecting from the east through the middle of the month will introduce brief episodes of greater shower activity over such spots as windward Big Island and Maui County.
The extended forecast may become more active during the later half of next week. An upper low a couple of thousand miles northwest of the islands (N of 40N) will likely drag a weak cold front or shear line in the proximity of the island chain by Friday. The far distance of this low from the state and the strength of the backing high will draw into question whether this boundary makes it here on Valentine's Day or not. Ensemble guidance is still lacking any real consensus with the majority of the members from each suite depicting a a swath of the highest QPF remaining north of the island chain; thin line of rain traveling into west state Friday. Upper dynamics seem to be lacking as there doesn't seem to be much in the way of mid to upper level cooling associated with lowering heights north of the state. There should be enough higher southern latitude mid layer moisture drawn up in the southerly flow ahead of this boundary to increase Kauai and Oahu's rain probabilities (just showers) Friday. The Valentine's Day forecast still leans toward low-end moderate (30-40%) rain chances with local east southeast breezes becoming more variable going into next weekend.

Aviation

Light to moderate ESE low-level flow will persist through the weekend, with clouds and a few brief showers favoring windward and mauka slopes. The best chance for clouds and showers over interior and leeward areas will be through the afternoon periods where sea breezes form. VFR conditions will prevail, with no AIRMETs anticipated.

Marine

A weak surface ridge will remain north of the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. Light to moderate east-southeast winds will prevail in a fairly stable weather pattern. The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled this morning as winds and seas will remain below advisory thresholds.
A long period northwest swell currently moving through the region will continue to decline today. The HSA was cancelled this morning for north and west facing shores as the northwest swell forecast will remain just below surf advisory thresholds. Yet another long period northwest swell begins to build into the region later this morning. This next swell will peak by Saturday afternoon and evening just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels, and then slowly decline through Monday.
A larger northwest swell will build into the islands from Tuesday into Wednesday, with surf heights easily exceeding advisory and possibly reaching High Surf Warning levels along exposed north and west facing shores.
Surf heights along east facing shores will continue to decline. Mainly background swell energy will keep surf heights small along south facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov