Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 71. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs around 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 63 to 73. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy and haze. Highs around 82. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 66. Southeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs around 82. East winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 70 to 78. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 60 to 65. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 69 to 77. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 68 to 83. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure near Kauai will keep light to moderate trades blowing over the eastern islands while land and sea breezes remain common over the western end of the state through mid week. Rather dry weather will prevail during this time, with a few showers along windward slopes and coasts each night and over the island interiors each afternoon. An approaching front will strengthen south to southeast winds and increase rain chances Thursday and Friday, mainly over the western islands. A ridge building over the state should bring drier conditions and lighter winds Saturday, with a new approaching front strengthening south winds and increasing rainfall chances on Sunday.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1034 mb high is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast of the CONUS, with ridging extending southwestward to near Kauai. Light to locally moderate trades are present across the island chain early this morning, with land breezes present in the more terrain sheltered areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the highest over windward slopes and coasts. Radar imagery shows isolated showers affecting mainly windward areas, with a few showers also seen over leeward Big Island. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The surface ridge axis will remain near Kauai through Wednesday, keeping light to moderate east-southeasterly trades blowing over the eastern end of the state. Lighter winds will prevail over the western islands, where overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes will be common, particularly in the more sheltered leeward areas. Rather dry weather will prevail during this time. A few showers will be possible along windward slopes and coasts at night and during the early morning hours, and over the interior and leeward sections of the islands each afternoon.
An approaching front will allow winds to pick up out of the south and southeast Thursday and Friday, potentially bringing an increase in showers to the western islands, particularly Kauai. Meanwhile, rather dry weather will persist over the eastern end of the state. The front appears to stall out near or just north of Kauai late in the week, then weaken into a trough and lift northward over the weekend. A surface ridge axis should build over the state on Saturday, keeping winds rather light, and shower activity minimal. A stronger front appears to approach from the west on Sunday, bringing an increase in south to southwest winds and higher chances for showers and potentially thunderstorms.

Aviation

Light to moderate ESE winds along with land/sea breezes expected through today. With that being said interior and leeward SHRA will be possible. MVFR conds will be possible in SHRA but in general VFR conds should prevail. A few SHRA will also be possible along windward and mauka locations.
While Kilauea has once again paused in its eruption cycle, there is some degassing occurring causing some hazy conditions across some portions of the state. While this hasn't been enough to add to any TAFs its worth mentioning there could be some haze.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Weak surface ridging north of the islands will steer light to moderate ESE winds through Wednesday before turning southerly Thursday and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest.
A series of moderate to large long period NW swells will move through the state this week. Currently, a moderate, long period NW (310) swell has reached the CDIP Hanalei near shore buoy in the 16-18 second energy band. Can expect this swell to continue to fill in through the morning hours, building surf heights along north and west facing shores to just under advisory levels, before dropping a foot or so tonight. A slightly larger, long period NW (300-310) swell will build on already elevated seas tonight into Tuesday. Surf heights are expected to reach High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds Tuesday for N and W facing shores. A reinforcing pulse of similar size will help keep surf at advisory levels through Wednesday before dropping below advisory thresholds Thursday. A large, long period NW swell (320 degrees) swell is expected to gradually generate High Surf Warning level surf along N and W facing shores Friday, peak Saturday the slowly subside into early next week.
Surf along E and S facing shores remains small through the period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov