Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 71 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 63 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and haze. Highs 73 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs 74 to 84. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 63 to 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and haze. Highs 75 to 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs 80 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and haze. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 50 to 69. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 67 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 57 to 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 69 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 67 to 83. South winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 54 to 71. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 67 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Two shallow cold fronts will approach and stall near Kauai over the next several days producing brief periods of shower activity over the western islands. Moderate south to southwest winds will develop ahead of the first approaching front that will stall out and diminish near Kauai today and tonight. East to southeast winds will briefly strengthen from tonight to Saturday as the front diminishes. The next cold front will bring another round of moderate south to southwesterly winds with more unsettled weather and thunderstorms by early next week.

Discussion

The satellite picture this morning shows a shallow cold front right on the doorstep of Kauai, moving into the Garden Isle from the northwest this morning. A few bands of clouds with scattered showers are developing in the warm sector ahead of the frontal band near Oahu and Molokai, these prefrontal cloud bands will diminish through the morning hours. Vog (Volcanic smOG) will continue to drift over the islands for the next few days.
The weakening front will spread clouds and showers as the forward motion stalls out over Kauai later today. An inch or more of precipitation is possible in isolated heavy downpours over northern and interior sections of Kauai. Decreasing rainfall trends are forecast for Oahu through the morning hours. For the rest of the island chain, easing south to southeast winds will produce little rainfall and persistent vog. Surface high pressure passing north of the state tonight will usher in weak east to southeast winds, causing moisture along the dissipated front to lift north of Kauai.
A high pressure system passing north of the islands will bring a brief return in east to southeast winds from tonight through Saturday. Fairly stable conditions will persist for most of the state starting later tonight through Saturday night under the influence of stable subsidence under the upper level ridge.
Another shallow cold front will approach the islands from the northwest direction early next week. Large scale winds will begin to shift out of the southeasterly to southerly directions by Sunday as the surface ridge axis drifts over the island chain. Forecast guidance shows a convergent cloud band developing over Kauai just ahead of the approaching cold front. This cloud band will likely enhance showers and a few thunderstorms over Kauai and possibly Oahu from Sunday afternoon to evening.
Unsettled conditions are likely continue into Monday as the front diminishes near Kauai and upper level troughing deepens over the Hawaii region. Easterly trade winds spreading across the state from Monday night through Tuesday will drive unstable clouds over windward mountains, producing periods of enhanced showers into the second half of next week. Shower activity during this time period will favor the overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

Strong high pressure will persist over the Northeast Pacific. A sharp ridge extending southwestward from the High across the eastern third of the state will hinder the advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move over Kauai later today and dissipate by tomorrow morning.
Light south winds ahead of the front will veer to be out of the northwest this evening then shift to northeast by Saturday morning. Elsewhere, weak trade wind flow will continue. Winds will remain light enough over Maui and Hawaii Counties to allow land and sea breezes to prevail.
Bands of showers in advance of the front will likely produce widespread mountain obscuration across Kauai later this morning. Conditions may spread to Oahu later in the afternoon. Across the remainder of the state, the air mass should remain mostly dry and mostly stable due to the influence of the ridge.

Marine

Light to moderate southerly flow will persist today as low pressure tracks north of the area and a cold front approaches from the northwest. By late this afternoon, the weakening front should stall out near Kauai. Surface high pressure will build north of the state Saturday into Sunday and generate moderate easterly or east southeasterly flow across the waters.
Nearshore buoys indicated enough westerly swell energy to justify extending the High Surf Advisory (HSA) for west facing shores of the Big Island (though low end advisory).
The next large, medium period, west-northwest swell (310) is progged to build this afternoon or evening, peak tonight, and slowly decrease during the day Saturday. This swell should boost surf well into the HSA range for north and west facing shores during this time. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for seas exceeding 10 ft will also likely be needed by tonight over the northern and western waters. Deep low pressure presently situated just southeast of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula will deliver a long period swell next week with forerunners arriving as early as Sunday night. This large, long period west-northwest (310) swell is modeled to peak Monday night and hold through Tuesday before gradually declining through mid-week.
Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for west facing shores of the Big Island.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov