Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Partly cloudy early in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 64 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 73 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Partly cloudy early in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 64 to 69. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Partly cloudy early in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 79. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 71. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy. Haze through the day. Isolated showers early in the morning. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 58 to 65. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 68 to 78. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 54 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 67 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A cold front currently 200 miles northwest of Kauai is slowly moving closer to the Hawaiian Islands. Showers developing over Kauai and Niihau this morning are spreading eastward to Oahu. This unsettled wet weather pattern continues through tonight as the cold front stalls out and dissipates near Kauai. More stable easterly trade winds return to the region tonight with periods of windward and mountain showers lasting through Wednesday night. By Thursday, a strong ridge aloft will build in over the state, producing dry and stable trends lasting through the weekend. Lighter winds are forecast from Friday onward as another shallow cold front approaches the state from the northwest direction.

Discussion

The satellite and local radar imagery this morning shows bands of clouds and embedded showers streaming up from the south over the islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. A cold front currently 200 miles northwest of Kauai is slowly moving closer to the Hawaiian Islands. Additional rainfall amounts in the 0.10 to 0.50 inch range are expected to continue this morning over some terrain favored areas of Kauai and Niihau; reaching Oahu later today.
The short range weather forecast continues to show wet weather trends for the western half of the state today and tonight. Forecast model guidance has slowed down the movement of this frontal band and now stalls the forward motion of the front near Kauai by tonight. This means less rainfall activity for Oahu and Molokai over the next 12 to 24 hours. That said, periods of showers remain in the forecast just with at a lower intensity than previously anticipated. Shower bands moving up from the south still have potential to produce localized flooding in some areas where they can line up and train over island mountains. The coverage of isolated thunderstorm will be limited to the islands and waters surrounding Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. By this afternoon, the main band of moisture will begin to diminish across the western islands as the frontal band dissipates and more stable air begins to move in from the east. Enhanced shower activity will rapidly diminish from tonight through Tuesday.
By Tuesday morning, easterly trade winds will sweep more stable conditions back into the islands with periods of our typical windward and mountain showers, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. An upper level ridge will move over the state and strengthen from Wednesday night into next weekend, limiting shower activity statewide. Another shallow cold front will approach the islands from the northwest direction from Friday into next weekend, weakening the surface ridge, and producing lighter southeast winds across the region.

Aviation

A cold front sits off to the northwest of Kauai with a pre- frontal convergence band slowly moving eastward to Oahu. This is bringing low cigs and SHRA to Kauai which will spread to Oahu through the rest of tonight into the morning hours. The front is expected to wash out over Kauai with trades returning for Tuesday.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for the entire island chain. Conds may improve for a few hours across Molokai and Maui before deteriorating once again.

Marine

For the remainder of this morning, light to moderate southeast flow will prevail across the eastern half of the island chain. Meanwhile, a frontal system slowly approaching from the northwest will help to veer winds more southerly or south southwesterly across the western half of the island chain. By this afternoon, the front is forecast to move over Kauai, leaving light to moderate northerly flow in is wake. Enough instability and moisture will exist along and ahead of the aforementioned front to bring widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to the waters surrounding Kauai and Oahu. The front is expected to stall and dissipate near Oahu tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate east- southeast winds will return statewide on Tuesday afternoon and continue through the remainder of the week as transient high pressure passes north of the area.
Deep low pressure, currently situated south of the Aleutian Islands, is the source for a large long- period northwest (310-320) swell that will impact the local waters today through at least mid-week. Energy from the long- period (18-22 sec) forerunners can already be noted on the Hanalei nearshore buoy. This northwest swell energy will continue to build through the day today, then peak tonight into Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for exposed north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu from noon today through Tuesday evening. This Advisory will likely be expanded to north and west facing shores of Molokai, north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of the Big Island as the swell continues to build through the night. In addition, A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas will likely be needed tonight for waters north and west of the western smaller islands. The swell will slowly subside Tuesday night through the end of the week.
Light to moderate southeast flow will maintain small chop along east facing shores, while background energy out of the southerly quadrant keeps small surf in place for south facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Tuesday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov