Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 73. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 42 to 53. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 78. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 54 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 69 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate east to east-southeast trade winds will persist through the rest of the week maintaining a hybrid trade wind/sea breeze pattern. Clouds and showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas, but sea breezes will also build clouds and few showers over select leeward and interior areas each afternoon. However, shower activity will be suppressed through the weekend as mid-level ridging builds overhead. A weak cold front will pass to the north this weekend and weaken the trades, allowing land and sea breezes to expand in coverage across the state.

Discussion

This morning's satellite and radar imagery show isolated to scattered showers riding into windward Big Island on the trades, with isolated showers embedded in the east-southeast flow moving across the smaller islands. This activity will continue through the morning with limited rainfall amounts expected.
Light to moderate east-southeasterly trade winds will maintain a hybrid trade wind/sea breeze pattern through the rest of the work week. This pattern will allow for clouds and a few showers to move into windward areas on the trades and afternoon sea breezes to bring cloud build ups with a few light showers over select leeward areas. In addition, the east-southeasterly component of the winds may allow for island plumes (convergence downstream from island terrain) to develop and bring additional clouds and a few showers to leeward Oahu today and tomorrow as indicated in some of the high resolution guidance. However, shower activity will be suppressed with only light rainfall accumulations expected as mid- level ridging builds over the state from the west through the weekend.
Over the weekend, a front passing to the north will weaken the surface ridge over the state and produce lighter southeast winds across the region. With these lighter winds, land and sea breeze development will become more prevalent state-wide. As such, partial clearing can be expected overnight along with cloud build ups over leeward and interior areas in the afternoons and the occasional light shower.
Yet another front will approach from the northwest early next week and may help to increase the chance of showers across the western end of the state as it dissipates across the area. However, forecast confidence is on the lower end that far out due to model discrepancies.

Aviation

Light to moderate ESE trades will maintain windward and mauka low cigs and SHRA. Due to this hybrid pattern land/sea breezes will also be likely over sheltered leeward areas, leading to clearing at night and some afternoon clouds over leeward and interior areas. MVFR conds possible but otherwise VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will move very little through the remainder of this week and generate moderate to locally breezy east southeast flow across eastern portions of the local waters. Light to moderate east southeast flow is expected elsewhere. A Small Craft Advisory was issued to account for the breezy easterly winds forecast to develop around the typical windy waters surrounding Maui County and The Big Island.
A large, medium to long period, west-northwest (300-320) swell will affect the local waters today, followed by a similar, but slightly smaller reinforcing west northwest swell on Thursday. At 2 AM HST this morning, Waimea Bay buoy indicated a 7 foot, 14 second, west northwest swell, which would typically generate low end advisory surf along north and west facing shores. Thus, a High Surf Advisory will remain in effect along exposed north and west facing beaches of most islands through 6 PM HST this evening. Surf heights may briefly fall slightly below advisory criteria between the two aforementioned swells late today into early tonight, could then again rise slightly on Thursday.
Small surf is expected along east facing shores for the next several days as trades remain generally light to moderate. Surf along south facing shores should see a small boost on today as a small south swell fills in through the second half of the week.
A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect through 6 AM HST this morning for waters exposed to todays large swell. Significant wave heights should slowly fall below advisory levels (10 ft) thereafter.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala, Big Island South.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 AM HST Thursday for Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov