Maui Weather Forecast for February 26, 2025
West Side
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 71. Light winds.
Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Side
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 83. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 63 to 73. Light winds.
Thursday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 83. Light winds.
North Shore
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 82. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 65. Light winds.
Thursday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Upcountry
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
East Maui
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 61 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kaunakakai
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 69 to 83. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 54 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 70 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring increasing rainfall chances for portions of the state, with moderate south to southeast winds expected later today through the second half of the week. Drier conditions with light trades could return by the end of the weekend as the surface ridge briefly shifts northward. Another weakening cold front may approach and move into the area early next week.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement, depicting a progressive pattern with a couple of cold fronts passing to the north. Deep- layer ridging over the state has resulted in light and variable winds, maintaining dry and stable conditions with a strong subsidence inversion positioned between 5,000 and 6,500 feet this morning, limiting rainfall chances. Any brief showers that form will favor windward coastal areas due to land breezes through the morning hours today.
A transition period is expected later today through the latter half of the week as the first cold front approaches. Low-level winds will veer from the east-southeast this morning to more of a southerly direction later today through tonight as the front nears. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of this boundary will enhance rainfall chances, particularly across leeward slopes and mountain areas in the western portion of the state. However, with the front likely stalling or hanging up near or north of Kauai, overall rainfall amounts should remain limited.
Although this pattern may persist into Saturday, a return to light to moderate trades and drier conditions is possible by the end of the weekend as the surface ridge briefly shifts northward. The second cold front passing far to the north on Sunday could drag the tail-end of its boundary into the western portion of the state early next week, bringing another potential increase in rain chances.
Aviation
Light to moderate SE-S winds. As a front approaches, winds will veer to the S-SW and increase in strength over Kauai and Oahu. Some SHRA and isol MVFR conds are possible but VFR conds should prevail.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are anticipated.
Marine
Light to moderate east-southeast winds will shift out of the south to southeast today, then linger through the second half of the week as a cold front approaches and stalls nearby to the north. Localized terrain-induced accelerations will support moderate to fresh speeds periodically in the typical areas with south to southeast winds. A return of light to moderate trades is possible by the end of the weekend.
A large northwest swell will peak through the day today, then subside tonight. Buoy 51101, roughly 200 nm west of Kauai, indicated a 13-14 foot, long period NW swell earlier this morning. To account for the swell height coming in several feet above guidance, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been upgraded to a High Surf Warning (HSW), which is now in effect for most north and west facing shores through late this afternoon. High surf conditions may continue into tonight for these shores, as the swell begins to subside. In addition, a HSA has been issued for west facing shores of the Big Island starting at noon today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended to account for hazardous seas across northwest waters exposed to the swell.
A large to extra large northwest swell is expected to build late Thursday into Friday, once again likely reaching High Surf Warning level for most north and west facing shores. The potential for overwash in low lying areas is possible as the swell peaks early Friday morning.
Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny with mainly background energy through the week. Surf along east facing shores will also remain tiny to small through the week due to mostly light background wind flow, with a potential slight uptick early next week with the return of the trade winds.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Thursday for Kona, Kohala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov