Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 64 to 71. Light winds.

Friday: Sunny and haze. Highs 77 to 82. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs around 83. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 62 to 73. Light winds.

Friday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 84. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs around 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 60 to 65. Light winds.

Friday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 83. Southeast winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 42 to 54. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Haze through the day. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 72 to 79. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 62. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 72 to 79. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 70 to 84. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 54 to 70. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 69 to 84. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds will favor a southerly direction into the weekend as a couple of fronts stall northwest of Kauai. Limited rainfall is expected, with the best chance for a few showers over leeward portions of Kauai and Oahu. Trade winds will return Sunday and become strong by Tuesday, likely bringing an increase in showers, mainly windward.

Discussion

No change to the forecast philosophy this morning, so the forecast remains unchanged from the update last night. Despite some additional cloud coverage over Kauai and Oahu overnight, rainfall continues to be very sparse.
A ridge over the southern end of the island chain is bringing light winds to the Big Island, and southerly winds over Kauai and Oahu. Meanwhile a front to the northwest of Kauai is expected to move to the east, passing just north of the Garden Isle. The ridge will remain over the islands into the weekend. The southerly flow has elevated dewpoints (near 70F) that will make it feel somewhat muggy, especially in the afternoon hours.
A couple of fronts stalling northwest of Kauai through Saturday will allow the ridge position to fluctuate day to day, resulting in subtle differences in wind speed and direction across the islands. As the front edge closer to the Kauai at times, the winds at the western end of the island chain will be stronger than over the rest of the state. An upper level ridge over the islands over the next few days will limit rainfall amounts across the region. The prevailing southerly flow will likely mean leeward areas will be more likely to see a shower than windward areas. Chances for rainfall over the Big Island and Maui are low.
This type of flow regime typically spreads vog from the Big Island to the other islands, and GOES GeoColor and Optical Depth imagery confirm that vog is moving over most islands from the south this evening. USGS webcam at Kilauea shows that episode 11 of the ongoing eruption may be ending, which would lead to a reduction in emissions and vog coverage as the week progresses. As the trades build back into the islands next week, any lingering vog upstream of the islands could be carried back into the islands.
A pattern shift appears likely to develop late in the forecast period, with high pressure supporting a developing trade wind flow late Sunday and Monday that becomes strong by Tuesday. Moisture associated with one of the stalled fronts may fuel an increase in windward showers as trade winds increase and mid-levels cool, with a wet and windy pattern currently anticipated.

Aviation

Moderate SE flow over the eastern end of the state, SW flow over the western end of the state as a front tracks north of the area. Enhanced low-level convergence near Kauai will support isol SHRA and some lower cigs through at least the rest of the night. While MVFR conds are possible with SHRA, VFR should otherwise prevail.
While Kilauea has paused in it's eruptive cycle for now, there is still degassing occurring making for some hazy skies across the state. This should continue through at least tomorrow and may impact some vsbys.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

The current northwest swell has dropped significantly overnight and will continue to decline today as the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled for all zones. A large to extra-large northwest swell is expected to fill in this evening, reaching High Surf Warning thresholds late tonight, peaking Friday morning, and then declining into the weekend. Long period forerunners have yet to reach NDBC buoy 51101 and 51001, suggesting a rise towards the late afternoon for north and west facing shores. Due to observations with ASCAT Wednesday, surf is likely to peak above the expected guidance Friday morning. Also, coinciding with the swell is the peak high tide early as overwash to low lying coastal zones can be expected Friday morning. A High Surf Warning for select north and west facing shores and Small Craft Advisory for seas will need to be issued later this morning as we get more observations. Due to the westerly component of the swell, a High Surf Advisory is likely for surf along west facing shores of the Big Island on Friday. Another moderate to large west- northwest to northwest swell is expected on Monday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny with mainly background energy through the week. Surf along east facing shores will also remain tiny to small through the week due to mostly light background wind flow. With the return of strong trades next week, surf along east facing shores will steadily rise Monday and may even get close to advisory thresholds by the middle of next week.
A pair of fronts approaching from the northwest will pass just north of the state keeping the high pressure ridge over the islands through Saturday as light to moderate southerly winds are expected over the next several days. The fronts will stall northwest of Kauai bringing locally fresh south to southwesterly winds over Kauai waters. A strong high will build far north of the state late Sunday into Monday as light to moderate trade winds could return as early as Sunday and will continue to strengthen on Monday. A pair of strong highs will pass far north of the state next week, which should produce a prolonged period of strong trades next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov