Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs around 85. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Haze through the day. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 43 to 53. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Haze in the morning. Highs 70 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 67 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Relatively dry conditions will persist the next couple of days under partly cloudy and hazy skies. Recent more humid southerly flow will transition to slightly drier gentle trade winds going into Monday. Trades will strengthen to more breezy magnitudes from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Showers will become more frequent each subsequent day through the week, mainly focusing on windward areas and across upslope mauka. Late week rain chances will increase as residual moisture tied to a remnant northern boundary moves into a less stable atmosphere residing over the Hawaiian Islands.

Discussion

Deep layer ridging sits atop the islands this morning. This will maintain stable conditions as, despite several days of a more humid low to mid level southerly flow over the western half of the state, 0.8 to 0.9 inch precipitable waters in this morining's 12Z soundings are still evidence of a dry resident column by early March standards. Island-wide dew points have mixed out this morning as this has allowed many interior communities to fall into the pre-dawn low to mid 60s…around 70 right at the coast on Oahu and Maui County with the warmest spot around Kona on leeward Big Island. A northeast-to-southwest orientated surface ridge axis, extending from a 1032 mb high located about 1,500 miles northeast of the area, is laying across the state. A nice overnight ASCAT pass over the islands did verify the presence of this ridge axis with persistent moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern islands and surrounding waters become southerly over the western half of the state. Subsidence from ridging aloft is maintaining very stable conditions is leading to little to no areawide showers. The only mentionable rain is a thin strip south of Maui County, within the Big Island plume, going into sunrise. The greatest concentrations of volcanic haze (vog) remain confined to Maui County and leeward Big Island but haze will reach into Oahu and eventually Kauai the next couple of days. As the surface ridge axis travels north tonight, east winds filling in underneath it will aid in keeping dew points to the more seasonable lower to middle 60s while transporting vog further west over Oahu. Thus, today's weather will still be warm but slightly less sticky and hazier over Oahu and Kauai.
The surface ridge will move north through Monday as a stronger area of high pressure develops far to the northwest. This will allow gentle to locally breezy trades to develop across the entire island chain today. Persistent upper ridging aloft will maintain stable and rather dry conditions the next couple of days. The highest chance of any rain will be across windward-facing coastal/mauka areas and at higher elevation. As trades fill in from the east, Kauai's leeward areas may experience thicker afternoon clouds and occasional light showers today. Vog concentrations will likely thin out as strengthening trades better mix out haze through a deeper boundary layer. Trade winds will strengthen from Monday into Tuesday.
A new front approaching from the northwest tomorrow will likely become parallel to the upper level westerlies and dissipate just before it reaches the state. Surface high pressure will move in north of the state Tuesday and the resultant downstream pressure gradient from the high over the islands will produce several days of gusty, breezy trades. Stable conditions will generally remain the theme Monday, but windward locales will experience more overcast and frequent shower activity both Tuesday and Wednesday. Residual moisture from the diffuse frontal boundary north of the state (mentioned above) will sag southward toward Kauai and likely increase windward Kauai's Tuesday precipitation chances. In addition to the remnant frontal moisture over the north nearshore waters, ribbons of higher moisture from the east will periodically advect in on established trades later this week. There will be a touch more instability in response to lowering heights (cooler temperatures aloft) in association from a trough passing far north of Hawaii in tandem with the weaker southern branch of the polar jet passing over the state. This less stable and more moist scenario should increase the probabilities of a more wet trade wind pattern during the second half of the week.

Aviation

Moderate easterly trade winds will slowly filter in across the state today. Very stable conditions aloft will limit shower activity. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail with some enhanced low level cloud cover along the Hilo and Kona slopes of the Big Island.
There are no AIRMETs in effect and none are forecast.

Marine

A weather regime change will occur over the next 24 hours or so. High pressure building N of the islands will lead to fresh to near gale-force trade winds that will remain in place for the foreseeable future. In the short term, a ridge of high pressure near Kauai and Oahu will change little as a front passes to the NW, with light and variable winds over Kauai and Oahu waters, and light to moderate E-SE winds over Maui and Big Island waters. This afternoon into Monday, a strong (1035 mb) high pressure will build N of the islands, and move slowly E through the week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for all waters as winds strengthen, and seas increase to near 10 feet.
The current NW swell will continue to decline today. A new NW swell building Monday will likely lead to advisory-level surf at its peak late Monday/early Tuesday. This NW swell will diminish Tuesday and Wednesday, with another NW swell around Friday likely leading to advisory-level surf again. A small S swell is possible Monday. Choppy surf along E facing shores will increase in response to the building trade winds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov