Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Windy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 82. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to windy trades will continue through the forecast period, with typical trade wind showers favoring windward slopes and coasts while a few showers reach leeward communities as well. A couple old fronts may bring an increase in trade wind showers Thursday, and again Sunday through Monday.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a strong 1036 mb high is centered around 1000 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving breezy to windy trades across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the greatest in windward and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some of these showers reaching leeward communities. Main short focus remains on the strong winds today.
Strong high pressure north-northeast of the islands will slowly weaken as it builds eastward during the next couple days. A front will approach from north Friday and Saturday, then push southward through the islands on Sunday as a new strong high builds in behind it. This high will hold in place Monday and Tuesday, with a new strong high replacing it to the northeast of the state by the middle of next week. An extended period of breezy to windy trades can be expected across the island chain through the middle of next week. The winds appear particularly strong through today, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of Maui County and Big Island through 6 PM this evening.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather featuring windward and mauka showers along with the occasional leeward spillover should continue through the forecast period. A couple old fronts may bring an increase in trade wind showers as they move through, with the first passing through on Thursday, and the next during the Sunday through Monday time frame.

Aviation

A strong surface high pressure system north-northeast of the state will slowly drift eastward over the next few days. Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue to blow across the state through at least tonight, with a slight decrease in wind speeds by Thursday. Periods of clouds and showers remain in the forecast, favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are forecast especially in showers.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for mountain obscuration along north and east sections of Kauai. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled later this morning.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 8000 feet over and downstream of island mountains due to the strong trade winds. This AIRMET will likely be extended for the next several days due to continued strong winds.

Marine

Strong- to near gale-force easterly trade winds will persist as strong high pressure remains north-northeast of the area. Seas will remain rough, with a combination of short-period wind- generated seas and northwest swells moving through. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue for all Hawaiian waters through Thursday and may be extended into the weekend due to a combination of winds and seas.
Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will continue to ease into Thursday as a northwest swell moves out. An upward trend is expected late Thursday through Saturday as a couple of northwest (320-330 degrees) swells arrive, peaking Friday night through Saturday. This may push surf heights back to advisory levels at the peak late Friday through Saturday. A downward trend is then expected Sunday through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the week due to strong easterly trade winds.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with mainly background south and southeast swells.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov