Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 37 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 82. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 71. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy easterly trade winds will persist through the weekend, bringing periods of windward and mauka showers as bands of moisture move through.

Discussion

Model guidance remains in good agreement, showing a strong low- to mid-level ridge anchored north of the islands holding firm into next week. This pattern will support a mostly stable and breezy to locally windy trade wind pattern. A weak upper trough nearby will keep the inversion weak and slightly elevated, allowing for occasional increases in windward showers as shallow bands of moisture move through.
One such moisture band has settled southward into the area this morning, bringing an uptick in windward shower activity for most areas. These showers will be brief and light, though some may hold together as they drift over leeward areas.
Trade winds may ease slightly later today through Friday as a front passing far to the north weakens the ridge. However, winds are expected to strengthen again over the weekend as the ridge rebuilds to the north, potentially reaching advisory levels for our typically windier areas in Maui County and the Big Island. Another shallow moisture band moving in Sunday into early next week could bring another round of enhanced windward showers.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trades. Low cigs and SHRA should favor windward and mauka locations. Brief periods of MVFR conds can be expected in SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for mod low level turb below 080 over and downstream of island terrain. This AIRMET may need to be extended through the next couple of days due to the stronger trade winds.

Marine

Strong high pressure over the Northeast Pacific will drive strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds through channels and across most windward waters. Seas will remain rough, with a combination of short-period wind-generated seas and northwest swells moving through. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for a combination of strong winds and elevated seas is currently in effect through Friday afternoon for all coastal marine zones. The SCA will likely be extended through the weekend in later packages.
Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores will continue to ease into Thursday as a northwest swell moves out. An upward trend is expected late Thursday through Saturday as a couple of northwest (320-330 degrees) swells arrive, peaking Friday night through Saturday. This may push surf heights back to advisory levels at the peak late Friday through Saturday. A downward trend is then expected Sunday through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the rest of the week due to strong easterly trade winds.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with mainly background south and southeast swells.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov