Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 63 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 69 to 78. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 78. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 53 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to windy trade winds will persist through the middle of the month. Bands of higher moisture passing across the state within established trade flow will promote frequent scattered showers. Precipitation will primarily focus along windward and upslope mauka exposures with less frequent showers quickly moving across leeward communities.

Discussion

A typical wet season synoptic pattern remains in place over the Central Pacific. More wet and breezy weather will be the general theme the next several days. Hawaii is in between a building upper ridge to the west and a sharpening northeast upper trough deepening and moving into Southern California early next week. The highest 24 hour rain has primarily been observed over windward or higher terrain areas such as Mount Waialeale on Kauai, and the upper Central and Manoa Valleys on Oahu where over an inch has fallen since sunrise Friday. The islands will remain the beneficiary of continued amped up trade flow as a 1035 surface high centered about 1,200 miles northwest of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient across the islands. Near term NWP model guidance doesn't show much change in the mesoscale to macroscale the next few days. So, this recent slightly more wet weather pattern under partly sunny skies and breezy trades will be on a continuous loop going into the middle of the month. The presence of the proximity eastern upper trough, while slowly exiting stage right through the weekend, will have enough of an influence to keep a weaker mid level slightly elevated weak inversion in place. As bands of lower to mid level moisture advance in on easterly steering flow within this marginally unstable regional environment, there will likely be more frequent shower episodes. While rainfall will not be anchored to any particular area due to the progressive nature of these showers, higher rain accumulation will generally occur over more windward coastal and upslope mauka locations. Heavier, visibility-limiting maritime showers will likely occur within the higher moisture band draped across the northern nearshore waters and within the Big Island plume through Tuesday. Haze will be confined to mainly leeward Big Island and areas southwest of the island.
Trades will remain breezy to locally windy well into early next week as a secondary surface high drops in from the northwest and replaces the current weakening high. The resultant downstream gradient will likely be taunt enough tomorrow through Wednesday to support 40 mph-plus Wind Advisory level high terrain wind gusts, especially over better exposed ridge tops and within valleys. The only other minor weather caveat will be when the remnants of a dying front hanging up north of the state settle south into the islands Monday. This diffuse boundary in the vicinity of the northern nearshore waters will provide a more rich upstream moisture source for enhanced rain. This may subtly increase early week windward POPS a touch but chances are, with higher mid layer moisture riding in on its heels, it will become more noise than signal…going largely unnoticed in the large scheme of overall repeat rain events.

Aviation

Breezy trade winds expected for the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA possible over windward and mauka locations. Brief MVFR conds are likely in SHRA, but VFR should prevail.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for mod low-level turb over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely continue through the middle of next week.

Marine

A series of strong highs to our north will maintain strong trade winds for all zones with near gales for our windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island through the middle of next week. Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Sunday night for all Hawaiian waters due to the strong trade winds and elevated seas and will likely be extended.
Surf along north and west facing shores will rise gradually as a moderate medium to long period northwest (310-330 degree) swell through the day. Offshore NDBC buoy 51101 has continued to rise overnight, translating to advisory level surf through the day. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands and may need to be extended if surf heights persists above criteria through tonight. This swell will then begin to fall tonight through early next week and the swell direction will gradually veer toward the north- northwest as it declines.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough into next week due to this persistent fresh to locally strong trade flow over and upstream of the islands. Trades could possibly strengthen further early next week, which could increase the windswell a touch around Tuesday into Wednesday.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small with mainly some wrap around wind swell for select exposures. A small, long period south-southwest swell is possible next Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov