Maui Weather Forecast for March 09, 2025

March 9, 2025 · 5:20 PM UTC

Listen to this Article
5 minutesLoading Audio... Article will play after ad...

Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 63 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 54 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 65 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the islands will maintain strong trade winds into the middle of the week. Expect periods of windward and mauka showers, particularly overnight and during the early morning hours. Winds will ease a little during the second half of the week as the high moves closer to the islands.

Discussion

As anticipated, made some tweaks to the forecast to keep it in linewith the latest National Blend of Models (NBM). The overall forecast philosophy remains the same. That being said, the PoPs were increased a bit over windward portions of the Big Island during the second half of tonight and tomorrow. The other change was to the winds today. The NBM, influenced by several of the high resolution models, would suggest some areas of the Big Island and Maui County could reach Wind Advisory thresholds today. However given that current observations do not match well with the initial steps of these models, have decided to limit wind speeds over those areas to just below advisory levels for today.
As expected, the dissipating cold front north of the islands earlier has weakened. What remains of the dissipating front is to the northeast of the islands during the pre-dawn hours. Meanwhile a lingering cloud band that was once part of the front is being carried into the islands on the trade wind flow generated by the strong high pressure system far north of the islands. This cloud band is moving over Kauai and is expected to sink southward to Oahu later today, before moving towards Maui County and the Big Island tonight and tomorrow. Expect an uptick in windward and mauka showers with this cloud band, and the strong trade winds could carry some of the showers to leeward areas.
The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo show the inversion between 8500 and 9000 feet respectively. Both sites reported precipitable water (PW) around 1.1 inches, which is near normal for March. In fact 500MB and 700MB temperatures from both sites are also near normal for this time of year.
Satellite derived PW shows lower values behind the cloud band mentioned above that is moving towards Kauai early this morning. The GFS and ECWMF both show a mid level ridge moving north of the islands later today, which will likely result in a lower trade wind inversion later today at least over Kauai. This will likely result in fewer showers over the eastern end of the state. Meanwhile, a mid level trough looks to remain over or just south of the Big Island, which could help to enhance some of the showers that are associated with the band as it reaches the southern end of the state tonight and tomorrow.
A strong high pressure system far north of the islands will continue to drive strong trades to the islands into the middle of the week. With the drier air behind the cloud band, some gusty winds are possible, and there is a chance some of the typical windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island could see winds approach Wind Advisory levels tonight and tomorrow. As mentioned above, some of the high resolution models would suggest some of those area could reach advisory levels this morning, but confidence is low given the latest observations. Will continue to monitor the situation throughout the day.
A developing trough to the west of the islands will help push the high pressure system closer to the islands during the second half of the week. This will lead to weakening trades, and the possibility of southeasterly winds by next weekend.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will persist over the next several days. Remnant moisture from a dissipated frontal boundary will sag southward over the islands through this afternoon and generate scattered to numerous showers along mainly windward locations. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility will likely be associated with this activity. An isolated shower or two could pass over the terrain and affect leeward areas, though VFR conditions should generally prevail.
AIRMET SIERRA may be needed for the smaller islands later this morning to account for low ceilings and reduced visibility as the band of moisture begins to push down the island chain.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET is expected to continue over the next several days.

Marine

High pressure centered approximately 750 nautical miles north of Oahu is maintaining a very tight pressure gradient between itself and lower equatorial pressure. This has resulted in several days of fresh to locally strong trade winds. As this high moves east and is replaced by a high just to its northwest later this week, the downstream pressure gradient will still remain tight enough to support fresh to near gale force trades. Gale force winds are possible over the notoriously windier channels and bays surrounding Maui County and Big Island, as well as south of Big Island, from Monday through Thursday. An all-water Small Craft Advisory for these strong winds and resultant elevated seas will remain in the effect for the near future.
Yesterday's moderate size, medium period northwest (310-330 degree) swell that produced the High Surf Advisory (HSA) is veering and lowering this morning. Surf has fallen below HSA heights and the advisory has been cancelled. This swell will progressively decline through the day. A slightly smaller, medium period north northwest (330 degree) swell will arrive at mid week with a reinforcing longer period swell on its heels to close out the week.
East-facing shore rough, short period wind-driven seas will hold through most of the week in response to this persistent fresh to strong trade fetch over and upstream of the islands. Trades may strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday. This will further agitate seas and create an even rougher chop to eastern seas through the middle of the week.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small. Lingering medium period northerly swell, along with the east wind wave swell, will likely wrap into more eastern-facing southern exposures.