West Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and haze. Highs 77 to 82. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 64 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

South Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 63 to 74. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 85. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 64 to 73. Light winds.

North Shore

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and haze. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Upcountry

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 42 to 54. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 42 to 53. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 63. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 69 to 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist into the weekend, with light east to southeast winds continuing. Showers will remain limited, generally light with minimal accumulation due to the overall dry and stable environment. Expect showers to favor windward and southeast-facing slopes overnight through the early morning hours, with only a few developing over interior and leeward areas in the afternoons where sea breezes form. Rain chances may increase early next week as a deep low pressure system west of the state draws moisture northward into the islands, particularly over the western end of the state.

Discussion

Model guidance remains in decent agreement through the weekend, showing low-level winds holding from the east-southeast as the surface ridge lingers near the islands. Aloft, guidance suggests a buckle in the previously zonal jet stream, with upper-level heights lowering far to the west near the Date Line, with a broad cutoff low forming by the weekend. This setup will likely lead to rising mid- to upper-level heights downstream over the islands, reinforcing a more stable and suppressed environment.
As a result, mostly dry and stable conditions are expected to persist, with only light showers favoring windward slopes overnight through the early morning hours. During the afternoons, sea breezes may lead to some interior and leeward cloud buildups, but any associated showers should remain brief and limited in coverage.
Forecast confidence decreases heading into early next week due to large differences among the model and ensemble solutions. However, there is general agreement that deep low pressure to the west of the state will gradually shift eastward, causing the low- level flow to veer out of the south to southeast. This evolving pattern could lead to lowering upper-level heights and increased moisture being drawn northward into region, particularly over the western end of the state. As a result, rain chances may increase, especially if the deeper moisture axis shifts farther eastward. How far east this moisture axis shifts by midweek will be the key factor in determining the extent and coverage of rainfall across the state.

Aviation

Light to moderate large scale southeasterly winds will produce land and sea breezes over all islands northwest of the Big Island rain and wind shadow for the next 24 hours. Brief showers are possible, mostly VFR conditions will prevail. East to southeast slopes of the Big Island and Maui may see periods of MVFR conditions in low clouds and showers as downslope mountain breezes converge with larger scale southeasterly winds.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

No marine headlines are expected through the weekend, with seas of about 3 to 5 feet anticipated.
A surface ridge will remain near or just N of the islands through the weekend, with light to moderate E-SE winds prevailing. Diurnal land and sea breezes will dominate the flow over nearshore waters sheltered from the large-scale flow. Early next week, deep-layer low pressure far NW of the islands may bring increased S-SW winds.
The large scale pattern will be supportive for the development of relatively small N-NE swells for the islands over the next week or so. In the short term, the fetch associated with a storm-force low near WA/OR will send a NNE swell toward the islands from Thursday into Sunday, with the swell likely peaking ~4 feet 12 seconds on Friday. A small WNW swell may also arrive over the weekend as diminishing NNE swell lingers. More relatively short-period N swell is anticipated next week. Small, long-period SSW swells are expected to provide small surf to S facing shores into next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov