West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 65 to 71. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 77 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 63 to 74. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 65. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 69 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes will be common in most areas through the weekend. Light showers will favor areas near the coast each night and over the island interiors each afternoon. A new cold front west of the state will bring moderate south to southeast winds to the area early next week, with an increase in showers possible particularly over the western islands. Wind will ease from west to east with the approach of the new front Wednesday and Thursday, with the front potentially bringing a better chance for more significant rainfall to the western islands next Friday.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered around 1600 mile east-northeast of Hilo, while a nearly stationary front is located around 350 miles north-northwest of Kauai. The resulting gradient across the islands this evening remains weak, with winds light and variable. Infrared satellite imagery shows decreasing daytime heating driven cloud cover across the islands, although a bit more cloudiness is holding on over Kauai and the Big Island at the moment. Radar imagery shows some lingering daytime heating driven showers across Kauai and the Big Island this evening, with dry conditions over Oahu and Maui County. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and wind trends during the next few days.
The front north-northwest of Kauai will not move much tonight through the weekend, while a new front gradually develops several hundred miles west of the islands. As a result, light winds will prevail with land and sea breezes common across much of the state through the weekend, with light to moderate trades potentially returning Sunday over the eastern islands. The new front west of the islands will edge closer to the state early next week, while a pair of high pressure systems consolidate closer to the islands. As a result, moderate southeasterly winds should prevail over the eastern end of the state, while moderate southerly winds hold over the western islands. A front appears to approach from the northwest toward the end of next week, which should gradually ease winds to light levels from west to east across the state Wednesday through next Friday.
As for the remaining weather details, not too much change to the overall weather pattern is expected through Monday. Mid-level ridging will hold over the state, keeping showers limited and near the coast at night, with daytime heating driving shower development over the island interiors each afternoon. Ridging aloft appears to break down a bit Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing southerly flow bringing some deeper moisture northward into the western islands. As a result, the expectation is for an increase in shower coverage, particularly over the western islands. Easing winds Wednesday and Thursday should result in showers favoring areas near the coast at night and over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A cold front could push into the western islands next Friday, bringing a better shot for some more significant rainfall.

Aviation

Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist into the weekend, with light and variable winds continuing. Expect light to moderate showers favoring windward and southeast-facing slopes overnight through the early morning hours. During the afternoons, sea breezes will lead to interior and leeward cloud buildups, but any associated showers should remain brief and limited in coverage. Periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in showers, which could lead to AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration overnight if the showers become focused in a particular area.

Marine

Light and variable winds will persist into the weekend, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes forming near the coasts each day as a surface ridge remains in the area. The background winds will mostly remain out of the east southeast direction, with a shift out of the south over the western end of the state Sunday night through early next week as deep low pressure far to the west drifts eastward. These south to southeast winds could increase into the moderate to locally fresh category through the first half of next week, depending on far east this system to the west shifts.
Surf along exposed north and east facing shores will persist into the weekend due to a small north-northeast swell moving through. Buoy observations from the offshore NDBC 51000 buoy to the nearshore PacIOOS Waimea, Hanalei, and Mokapu buoys reflect this north-northeast (010 degrees) swell holding steady within the 10-12 second band this evening. Guidance aligns well with these observations and show this source slowly fading Sunday through Monday, with a similar north swell arriving around Tuesday from a decent sized area of strong- to near gale-force northerly winds evolving over the far north Pacific near the eastern Aleutians this weekend. This source may linger into the second half of next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up into Sunday, then return to seasonable levels Sunday night into early next week as a small south swell moves through.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov