West Side

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows 65 to 71. Light winds.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows 63 to 74. Light winds.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 63 to 74. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 65. Light winds.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 66. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows 42 to 54. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 85. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist through Sunday, with light east to southeast winds continuing. Showers will remain limited, generally favoring windward and southeast-facing slopes overnight through the early morning hours and interior and leeward areas in the afternoon where sea breezes form. Rain chances will steadily increase through the upcoming week as southerly winds associated with a cold front and upper disturbance draw moisture northward into the islands. This front may reach the islands late next week, which could lead to more widespread rainfall.

Discussion

Model guidance remains in decent agreement through the end of the weekend, indicating that deep-layer ridging will remain positioned over the region, reinforcing the stable and suppressed environment. Expect only light to moderate showers, primarily favoring windward and southeast-facing slopes overnight and into the early morning hours. During the afternoons, sea breezes may lead to some cloud buildup in interior and leeward areas, but any associated showers are expected to be brief and limited in coverage.
Guidance remains reasonably consistent through the first half of the upcoming week, with deep low pressure west of the state gradually shifting eastward. This will cause the low-level flow to veer out of the south beginning Monday. This evolving pattern will result in lowering mid- to upper-level heights and increased moisture being drawn northward into the region, initially over the western end of the state. As a result, rain chances will steadily rise through the first half of the week.
Forecast confidence decreases heading into the latter half of the week due to large differences among the model and ensemble solutions. However, there is general agreement that the aforementioned deep moisture axis and front will reach the islands. Combined with broad upper-level troughing and instability, this will lead to an evolving wet pattern, which could become more widespread by next weekend.

Aviation

Weak stable southeast flow will prevail tonight and allow for gentle land breezes with isolated light showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Scattered thin cirrus clouds will begin to overspread the region from the west.
By late Sunday morning sea breezes will develop and bring isolated showers to mainly interior regions.
No AIRMETs anticipated overnight.

Marine

Light and variable winds will hold over the western islands through Sunday, while light to moderate east-southeasterly trades prevail over the eastern end of the state. A strengthening storm system to the distant northwest, will strengthen winds and shift them around to the southeast and south Monday through Tuesday. Localized terrain enhancement around the Big Island could result in advisory level winds during this time. The winds will then gradually ease Wednesday and Thursday as a front approaches from the northwest, with moderate to fresh northeast trades filling in behind the front for the end of next week.
A series of small overlapping north-northeast swells will keep some surf in place along exposed north and east facing shores through early next week. A small west-northwest swell will bring some small surf to exposed north and west facing Tuesday through Thursday. A more significant north-northwest swell appears to arrive late next week, potentially bringing warning level surf to north and west facing shores next weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up through Sunday, then return back to seasonable levels Monday through late next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov