West Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 65 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 70. Light winds.

Friday: Partly sunny. Haze. Highs 75 to 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 69. Light winds.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy and haze. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 53 to 69. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 40 to 52. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 59 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 55 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 54 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A dissipating front currently just south of Kauai will stall out and weaken near the Kauai Channel tonight into Friday. Expect continued wet weather across Kauai County during this time, with some showers moving into Oahu as well. Trade winds will begin to build back into the islands by Friday, strengthening into the moderate to breezy range from Saturday onward, with periods of enhanced showers lasting through much of next week.

Discussion

In the satellite picture this evening we see a long cloud band associated with a weakening cold front stalling out in the Kauai Channel near Oahu. This frontal boundary will continue to linger in the Kauai Channel into Friday as winds behind the front are no longer driving the system eastward, causing the boundary to stall. Northeasterly to easterly trade winds will bleed through the front by Friday spreading trade winds across the state by Friday afternoon. Enhanced showers will favor windward and mountain areas of Kauai and to a lesser degree Oahu in this pattern. Easterly trade winds building in will begin to push this remnant frontal boundary back westward over Kauai from Friday night into Saturday. Vog will continue to linger over most islands through much of Friday until the easterly trade winds begin to push the Vog plume in a more westward direction away from the smaller islands by Friday night. Areas near and west of the Kilauea Volcano on the Big Island will continue to see Vog impacts through the week.
Elsewhere more typical easterly moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather will return to the islands from Saturday onward. The forecast next week continues to show a high confidence easterly moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather pattern with periods of enhanced showers from a cloud band moving in from the north. This cloud band is associated with the remnants of a dissipated frontal band originating in the eastern Pacific. Enhanced showers will favor windward and mountain areas during the Tuesday morning through Friday morning time period. Higher chances for showers are likely over windward and mountain slopes during the typical overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

A dissipating front near Kauai will stall with northeasterly trade winds strengthening behind the boundary. Enhanced clouds and showers over the western end of the state is expected through tonight as moisture lingers along the front. Periods of MVFR are likely within the heavier showers, mostly for the western end of the state. The eastern half of the state will see moderate to locally breezy southeasterly winds continue, with localized land breezes in sheltered areas and overall prevailing VFR conditions. Winds should then transition tonight into tomorrow to a more typical northeasterly direction as the front dissipates.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all of Kauai and Oahu. This could continue tonight as clouds and showers linger. AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate upper level turbulence and is expected to continue through the night.
Most areas could continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing eruption of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact visibilities enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.

Marine

A slow moving and weakening cold front will stall over the Kauai Channel tonight then dissipate by Friday evening. Moderate north to northeast winds have filled in over Kauai waters behind the front. Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds are in place elsewhere with the stronger winds over the eastern half of the state. Expect winds to gradually strengthen overnight and Friday as the front dissipates and a strong high builds north of the state. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will become fully reestablished over the Islands by Saturday afternoon and continue into the coming week.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are possible for Kauai waters Friday due to strong winds and elevated seas and will be issued for the day Friday with the next package. The SCA will likely need to be expanded and extended Saturday into early next week as a large swell moves through the state keeping seas elevated and strong trades reestablish across the state.
Wave energy in the 10 to 14 second range has been picking up at the Hanalei nearshore buoy these past few hours, signaling the arrival of a new small to moderate, medium period north northwest swell (330). This swell is expected build overnight while shifting to a more northerly direction (340-350) and peak Friday, producing advisory or near advisory level surf along north and west facing shores. A large to extra large, long period swell (350-360) will quickly build in Saturday on already elevated seas and produce warning level surf along north facing shores with advisory level surf across west and east facing shores that will continue through the weekend. This swell, aside from being hazardous to small craft, could generate harbor surges along north facing bays and inlets.
Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny into the weekend with mainly background energy dominating. A small, long period south swell could fill in later over the weekend into early next week and provide a small boost to surf along south facing shores.
Surf along east facing shores will gradually build Friday and Saturday with the return of trade wind flow over and upstream of the state and from the larger northerly swells wrapping into exposed areas.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov