West Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 76 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Tonight: Breezy. Occasional showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Occasional showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 39 to 51. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 50 to 68. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Tonight: Breezy. Occasional showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Occasional showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist into early next week as high pressure holds far north of the state. Rainfall will be focused over windward slopes, though showers will be slightly enhanced and will periodically pass over leeward areas during the next several days.

Discussion

Robust surface high pressure centered far northwest of Hawaii continues to drive locally breezy and gusty trade winds. A mid- level ridge is maintaining modest stability with an inversion, while broad and weak upper-level cyclonic flow is producing slight instability aloft. Under these conditions, showers have been somewhat active, with many windward slopes measuring up to a half of an inch of rainfall during the past 24 hours. The breezy trades have been carrying some brief rainfall over leeward areas from Kauai to Maui, and spotty active showers have been falling over the heated South Kona slopes in the afternoon and evening hours.
Breezy and somewhat wet trade wind weather will continue through into Friday, and slightly unstable conditions will persist, enhancing pockets of moisture traveling along the trade wind flow. The next such area of enhanced moisture will move in tonight and produce a boost in rainfall, especially over windward areas from Kauai to Maui. Expect brief, passing showers over leeward areas, except for South Kona, where spotty and briefly heavy showers will develop each afternoon.
A decrease in showers is expected during the weekend as a ridge builds aloft and brings increased stability. Modest showers will likely become confined to windward slopes, and trade wind strength will chance little as surface high pressure passes north of the state.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the next couple of days. Expect increasing shower trends tonight through Wednesday morning with more frequent periods of MVFR and brief IFR due to moderate to locally heavy shower activity.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and immediately SW through NW of all island mountains due to the locally breezy trade winds. This AIRMET will likely continue for the next few days.
In addition, mountain obscuration across north through east sections of the islands could become an issue tonight into early Wednesday as showers increase.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist through the weekend as the surface ridge remains anchored north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory will persist each day for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores will continue to increase this afternoon and evening to near-average levels as a medium-period northwest swell builds down the island chain. This swell will linger into the second half of the week, gradually shifting out of the north.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain below average through Thursday as a background south swell fades. A fresh long-period south-southwest swell is expected to arrive over the weekend, bringing an upward trend with above-average surf. Forerunners should begin filling in Friday, with the swell peaking Saturday through Sunday. If it comes in larger than expected, surf could approach advisory levels this weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy, with heights hovering around average (5 ft) each day.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov