West Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight.

North Shore

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 70. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 41 to 52. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 56 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 69 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 56 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the east 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the islands will maintain breezy easterly trade winds through the forecast period. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers occasionally spilling into leeward areas due to the strength of the trades. Some shower development is also expected each afternoon over Kona slopes of the Big Island.

Discussion

High pressure north of the islands continues to produce breezy easterly trade winds across the state. Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the region this afternoon, with the typical distribution of clouds over most windward and mauka areas and the Kona slopes of the Big Island. Radar imagery also shows generally dry conditions with isolated showers embedded in the trade wind flow. Kauai remains an exception to our normal trade wind conditions, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers moving across the island this afternoon as an area of enhanced moisture lingers upstream.
Guidance continues to show high pressure shifting eastward tonight then northeastward on Saturday. This will maintain our breezy trade wind pattern through early next week. Trade may ease slightly during the middle to latter part of next week as a front passes north of the state. Otherwise, expect fairly typical trade wind weather with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Due to the breezy trades a few of these showers will occasionally spill over into leeward areas. Will also see some afternoon shower development over the Kona slopes of the Big Island.

Aviation

Breezy trades will continue through the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA should be focused over windward and mauka areas with limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds expected in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turb over all islands. This will likely be needed for the next several days due to the breezy trades.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist through early next week as a surface ridge remains anchored north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County, the Big Island, and Kauai. The advisory may need to be expanded to Maui County windward waters and the Kaiwi Channel as trades strengthen slightly during over the weekend.
Surf along south-facing shores will trend up above average this weekend as a long period SSW swell arrives. Forerunners will begin filling in this evening with surf peaking late Saturday through Sunday. This swell peaked above guidance at the American Samoan PacIOOS buoy Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will translate to a peak locally late Saturday into Sunday, likely driving surf to the advisory threshold. A gradual downward will follow early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy with heights hovering around average each day.
Surf along exposed north-facing shores will remain small through the weekend, with mainly background short period NNE energy continuing. A long period NW swell arriving late Sunday will lead to the surf picking back up to near average levels as it peaks Monday. Expect this trend to remain steady Tuesday through midweek as another medium-period pulse out of the same direction arrives Tuesday night. Expect a downward trend through the second half of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov