West Side

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 43 to 55. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 41 to 53. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 74. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 88. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy and mostly dry trade wind weather will persist through Wednesday. Trade winds will gradually decrease Thursday into Friday with a slight increase of shower coverage expected by Thursday. Light to moderate trade winds are expected over the weekend with mostly dry conditions on Saturday and scattered showers on Sunday.

Discussion

Strong high pressure far northeast of the state will maintain breezy trade winds through Wednesday. Scattered showers will continue to ride in with the trade winds and will mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas with a few showers making its way to leeward areas as well due to the breezy trades. As the high weakens far northeast of the state, trade winds will gradually weaken Thursday into Friday with moderate trade winds expected by Friday. A slight increase of shower coverage is possible Wednesday night into Thursday, but generally shower intensities will continue to remain light due to stable conditions in the lower levels.
In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, water vapor imagery is showing a weak upper level low located just west of the state. Very little impacts are expected from the upper level low, but some mid to high level clouds are expected to stream over the state tonight and once again on Wednesday night into Thursday. The cloud cover was nudged up a touch to show an increase of cloudiness on these days.
Over the weekend, mostly fair weather is expected with moderate trade winds. Saturday looks to be a mostly dry day with ample sunshine and a few isolated showers. Sunday should see an increase of shower coverage with some scattered showers expected. With the lighter trade wind pattern, we could see some localized sea breezes with afternoon clouds and showers over select leeward areas especially on Sunday.

Aviation

Breezy trades deliver clouds and scattered showers windward and mauka through the forecast period. Pockets of MVFR are likely but are forecast to remain isolated in nature while VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turb.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will slowly decrease and become gentle to locally fresh by Saturday as high pressure to the far northeast remains nearly stationary and weakens slowly through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the usual windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday afternoon.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small for the remainder of the afternoon before a tiny to small long period southwest swell is expected to start filling in late tonight into Wednesday. A larger swell from a fetch near New Zealand is likely to bring a moderate long period south- southwest swell as early as Friday, and peak Saturday potentially near High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria.
East-facing shore surf will remain choppy due to the moderate trade winds. A combination of a strong high pressure to the far northeast and a low near California earlier this week has produced the potential for a moderate medium period east swell to fill in Thursday, peak Friday, and decline through the weekend. Surf along north facing shores will remain small.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov