West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will gradually strengthen today with dry conditions expected. A weak upper level trough approaching the area will likely bring an increase of showers starting Monday and will likely persist through at least the middle of next week. Bands of moisture could produce some showery weather at times especially across windward and mauka locations.

Discussion

Currently, overheard a dry and stable airmass is in place. As evident on radar this morning a few isolated showers can be seen impacting windward and mauka locations with other places dry.
A surface high northeast of the state is causing a tight pressure gradient which will help strengthen the winds today. Across Maui and Hawaii counties we could see some fire weather concerns especially with the dry conditions in place, strengthening winds and where fuels are drier. We urge you to limit activities outdoors that could cause a spark to reduce the risk of any fires occurring.
Heading into the new work week an upper level trough approaches the islands. This should help slowly lessen the trades but should increase showery weather across the state through Thursday. Most showers should occur along windward and mauka slopes with limited spillover to some leeward areas. Some enhanced moisture could linger late week into the weekend, but a mid/upper high may sneak into at least the eastern islands and may suppress potential showers.

Aviation

Breezy trades expected to strengthen through tomorrow and early next week. Low cigs and limited SHRA should favor windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of all islands. Conds expected to improve in the morning hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb downwind of island terrain. This may be needed for a few days with the trades strengthening.

Marine

High pressure will remain nearly stationary northeast of the waters and gradually weaken through the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all waters surrounding Maui County and the Big Island and Oahu southern waters through this afternoon. The SCA will likely then be scaled back to the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island tonight through the middle of the week. Trade winds look to ease further into the gentle to locally fresh range by Wednesday through the end of the week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through early Monday until a moderate, long period south swell is expected to start filling in. Due to recent observations in Samoa this past Friday, the swell is expected to reach near High Surf Advisory criteria as it peaks on Tuesday before declining Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny with mainly background energy through the forecast period.
Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through the week. Coastal flooding will coincide with the daily peak tide each afternoon and may be exacerbated by the ongoing south swell as it peaks on Tuesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov