West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 75. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze in the evening. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 72 to 89. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze in the evening. Lows 60 to 73. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 72 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light trades will prevail and veer east-southeast slightly through the next couple of days in response to broad and weak surface trough. Shower activity will primarily impact typical windward and mauka areas, however localized sea breezes will increase showers to leeward and interior areas throughout today. Toward mid-week, trades shift back easterly, gradually increasing in strength into the weekend.

Discussion

A broad, positive-tilted surface trough passing to the north of the islands will be the culprit to weaker trades the next few days. As trades decrease in strength and veer slightly east- southeast, expect land-sea breezes to develop across select areas as a response. Additionally, as the trough remains present in vicinity of the islands, shower activity will likely increase as well, predominately across windward and mauka areas, but may stray into leeward and interior areas as well where afternoon sea breezes develop in the lighter wind flow. Any significant increase in shower activity will be hindered by a midlevel inversion at around 8000 feet.
As the aforementioned trough exits by the mid-week, as will the increased shower activity. The surface high well northeast of the islands will gradually build, leading to a return of moderate to locally breezy trades across the state. During this time, expect drier conditions and less cloud coverage, however, pockets of moisture escorted by these trades will lead to periodic showers across windward and mauka areas.
Latest model guidance of the GFS and Euro remains in good agreement that trades will steadily increase across the state to breezy to locally strong into the weekend through early next week. While stronger trades typically result in an increase in passing showers, latest guidance suggests that shower activity will remain modest at best, given atmospheric stability aloft.

Aviation

Clouds and showers are expected to prevail through much of the day over leeward and interior sides of the islands due to sea breeze convergence. Otherwise, expect passing showers over typical windward and mountain areas. Brief periods of MVFR conditions likely with any showers, but overall VFR conditions should prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect at this time.

Marine

A trough located far to the north along with weakening surface high pressure to the northeast will contribute to weakening trade winds over the next few days. A slight southerly component to the winds is expected today as the trough to our north lingers. Winds should then become easterly and remain in the moderate to locally fresh range Tuesday through midweek as the trough weakens and dissipates. Trade winds should strengthen by Independence Day into the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.
Surf along south facing shores will see a small, long-period south swell fill in and hold today and tomorrow with surf peaking near the summertime average. Surf heights will then gradually lower late tomorrow through the week as the swell slowly declines, however small pulses will keep surf heights from falling flat. A smaller long- period south swell could move through toward the end of this week for a slight boost to south shore surf.
Surf along east shores will remain small over the next several days due to the trade winds weakening, then could increase towards the end of the week as trade winds strengthen. Surf along north facing shores will remain seasonally tiny through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov