West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 75. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 42 to 54. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 72 to 80. East winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 72 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light trades prevail across the Hawaiian islands as a surface trough persists just to the north. As this trough exits the vicinity of the islands by mid-week, high pressure will build to the north in its wake, backing trades to a more easterly component and increasing to a more moderate to breezy range through the remainder of the week. Expect drier conditions during this time as well. By the weekend and into next week, trades could become moderate to strong as high pressure is forecast to build further.

Discussion

Light trades prevail across the state in response to a surface trough that has persisted north of the islands that has deteriorated the pressure gradient. Some localized sea breezes may occur throughout the day again today, triggering possible leeward and interior area showers, but will be far less energized in comparison to earlier this week as the surface trough weakens and exits the vicinity to the west. Thereafter, the surface high well north of the island chain will rebuild, allowing trades to gradually back out of the east and strengthen slightly to moderate to localized breezy conditions.
As the week progresses, expect drier conditions to ensue as drier air is progged to move into the vicinity of the islands. Despite this, typical trade showers can be expected across windward and mauka areas, but at modest levels given the lack of available moisture. This trend will continue through the weekend and into next week.
Meanwhile, latest model guidance of the GFS and Euro remains in pretty good agreement that trades will strengthen further, becoming breezy to localized strong at times into early next week. The conjunction of drier conditions with these stronger trades could elevate fire weather concerns. While this is still several days out, and confidence remains low at the moment, conditions will be monitored by future shifts leading up to the weekend and into next week.

Aviation

Light trades will prevail, however, as a diffused surface trough exits the region to the west, the trades will strengthen slightly and gradually back out of the east. Some leeward and interior sea breeze clouds and showers will be possible again, but will likely be less active than yesterday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers, but overall VFR conditions should prevail.
No AIRmets are in effect at this time.

Marine

A weak high pressure ridge anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep gentle to fresh easterly trade winds in the forecast through Friday. The ridge will build in north of the island chain by Saturday, increasing trade winds into the fresh to locally strong range into early next week. There are no Small Craft Advisories (SCA) currently in effect, however stronger winds forecast to arrive this weekend will likely bring a return to SCA conditions for wind over the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island.
A small long period south swell will hold around 2 feet through Wednesday. Another smaller longer period south swell then builds into the regional waters from Thursday onward, keeping surf heights along south facing shores fairly steady. Surf heights along E shores matches trade wind trends, subsiding and remaining small this week then increasing slightly this weekend. Surf heights along west facing shores will see some south swell wrap, with north facing shores remaining nearly flat.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov