West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 76 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 75. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 90. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 55 to 70. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 61 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 59 to 74. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 90. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Stable and breezy trade winds will continue through Wednesday as a strong high pressure ridge anchors in place north of the state. Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain slopes, and late afternoon to evening showers along the Kona slopes of the Big Island, other leeward areas will be mostly dry.

Discussion

Weather conditions are fairly similar to what we saw 24 hours ago. Fairly stable low clouds are riding the breezy easterly trade winds and producing a few showers over windward island mountains this morning. An upper level ridge will produce a fairly stable subsidence across the Hawaii Region with temperature inversion heights ranging from the 5,500 to 6,500 foot elevation range, limiting shower coverage across the state. A subtropical jet stream northwest of the islands will continue to produce some high level ice crystal cirrus clouds mainly over the western half of the state. These high level clouds may enhance sunrise and sunset colors.
In the big picture, a strong high pressure ridge will remain locked in place north of the Hawaiian Islands through much of next week, resulting in a fairly stable and breezy typical summer time trade wind weather pattern. One wrinkle in the forecast is a weak upper level trough, shown on both 500mb and 700mb model streamlines, drifting over the islands later tonight. This weak trough may lift subsidence inversion heights enough for a subtle increase in local island shower activity later tonight through early Sunday morning. Otherwise the ridge builds back in rather quickly with a return to dry and breezy summer time weather through much of next week. In the long range outlook, operational models and model blends are suggesting a slight increase in low level moisture and possibly a modest increase in shower activity from Wednesday night onward.

Aviation

A strong high pressure ridge anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep fairly stable and breezy easterly trade winds across the region lasting into much of next week. A fairly stable environment will keep only brief passing showers in the forecast, favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely persist into early next week as breezy trade winds continue.

Marine

Moderate trade winds will strengthen to areawide fresh to locally strong today in response to a tight pressure gradient downstream of a large high north of the islands. This has prompted an all water Small Craft Advisory that will be in effect through the weekend. The high will slightly weaken and slide east by the middle of next week. This will result in trades dropping back to more moderate magnitudes through the end of the week. Winds in the notoriously winder eastern island bays/channels and south of Big Island will remain fresh to strong through the majority of next week.
A slowly declining south swell will have surf along south-facing shores gradually falling below summer averages this weekend. Background, long period southerly swell will hold into next week until the arrival of a near 3 foot long period swell fills in late Tuesday through Wednesday. This swell may boost south-facing shore surf heights to near summertime averages (~5 ft) Wednesday.
East-facing shore chop will increase over the weekend, becoming rough and choppy, in response to strengthened trade flow.

Fire weather

Breezy, gusty, and rather dry conditions will continue into early next week. Minimum relative humidity at lower leeward elevations will likely fall at or below 45 percent each afternoon. Temperature inversion heights will drop as low as 5,000 feet. This will result in near critical fire weather conditions over dry leeward areas at times, though no headlines (watches or warnings) will be issued since the Keetch Byram Drought Index will remain below the 600 threshold at Honolulu.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov