West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 75. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 25 mph shifting to the east 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 61 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 72 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure well northeast of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trades, weakening slightly as the high begins to drift further away from the islands. Expect passing clouds and showers to favor windward and mauka areas, with a slight uptick in shower activity through the weekend and into early next week.

Discussion

High pressure persist northeast of the islands, maintaining moderate to locally breezy trades through the next several days. Model guidance of the GFS and ECMWF continues to support the high drifting further northeastward throughout the weekend and into early next week, allowing trades to weaken slightly, though wind- prone locations will tend to remain on the breezier side. On the contrary, an increase in sea breeze activity will be possible for sheltered western slopes of island mountains.
Latest observations from low-level water vapor imagery continues to display a compact low just north of the islands slowly meandering westward. Despite its quasi-stationary status, an associated shortwave trough will migrate into the vicinity of the islands, assisting in raising inversion heights a bit throughout the weekend. The 12z inversion heights at Lihue and Hilo are 7000 to 8000 feet, respectively. This, in conjunction with an area of moisture east of the offshore waters, may result in enhanced shower activity, especially across windward and mauka areas, but can still linger into leeward areas as well.
By early next week, model guidance is depicting another area of moisture moving east to west tracking toward the islands. While the ECMWF hints at this moisture missing north of the islands, the GFS is much more aggressive, suggesting a slight uptick in windward and mauka shower activity through the early portion of next week.
Thereafter by Tuesday evening, a resumption of typical summertime trades is in order as guidance hints at the aforementioned high pressure building back up, increasing the local pressure gradient. As a result, trades may increase slightly for the latter half of next week, but confidence is too low at this time to say anything with absolute certainty this far out in time.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will persist through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas across all islands and may result in MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect at this time, however, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed later in the forecast period.

Marine

The high pressure ridge will weaken north of the Hawaiian Islands, decreasing trade winds speeds through Monday. The ridge will strengthen from Tuesday onward increasing trade wind speeds back into the moderate to locally strong range through the end of next week. Wind speeds have fallen below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this morning and thus the advisory was cancelled. SCA conditions may return by Tuesday as wind speeds increase once again.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend as a small background south southwest swell moves through. A small, long period south swell will build in from Sunday night into Monday morning, and then diminish to background levels from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Wind wave driven surf heights along east facing shores will remain on the small choppy side through Tuesday, then increase slightly as trade wind speeds pickup by Wednesday. A very small northwest swell may pass through early next week, providing tiny surf along north facing shores on Monday and Tuesday before becoming nearly flat through the remain forecast period.

Fire weather

Moderate to locally breezy trades will decrease slightly over the weekend before becoming locally breezy again next week. Despite the trade wind showers picking up across windward sections this weekend and early next week, afternoon relative humidities across leeward sections remain near summertime normals. Fairly typical fire weather conditions are expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov