West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 75. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 84. East winds up to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 69 to 76. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 91. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 74. East winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and haze. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. East winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 61 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will pcontinue through the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Aside from scattered afternoon showers on the South Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will be mostly dry. Winds will begin to weaken later this week leading to more widespread leeward sea breezes and bringing higher chances for interior and leeward showers, mainly across the western islands.

Discussion

A surface high well north of the islands continues to drive moderate to locally breezy trades, while upper-level ridging has settled overhead resulting in dry and stable conditions. This has resulted in a decrease in shower activity across the state.
Subtle changes are looming, as a strengthening upper- level trough and associated surface trough move just northwest of the islands. This will lead to a shortwave passing in the vicinity of Kauai, resulting in the development of sea breezes in the afternoon for western mauka slopes and increased shower activity for leeward areas, despite the drier conditions still in place.
A return of stable summertime trades are expected during the latter half of the week as the aforementioned troughs to the northwest weaken. Trades will be slightly lighter in strength, but are progged to increase back to moderate to locally breezy by the end of the forecast period. Typical shower activity should return to windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades through tomorrow. Low cigs and SHRA should favor windward and mauka areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds across the region through Thursday. The ridge weakens slightly from Friday onward with a decrease in wind speeds into the gentle to fresh range through early next week.
Pulses of background long period south and southwest swells will keep surf above flat levels along south and west facing shores through the weekend. A slight bump in long period south swell will arrive by Tuesday producing a brief increase in surf heights above background levels.
Surf heights along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through the forecast period. Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat through the forecast period.
Peak monthly high tides associated with the lunar cycle, combined with water levels that are running higher than predicted may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is expected around the daily peak tide each afternoon through Thursday. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for Maui County and the Big Island.

Fire weather

Locally breezy, dry and stable conditions will continue through the week. With near critical RH values possible the next couple of days, expect elevated fire weather concerns, especially over drier leeward areas. Winds are expected to weaken later this week.
The current KDBI value at the Honolulu International Airport has exceeded the 600 threshold, currently 604, and will remain above this threshold until significant rain occurs, which is unlikely for weeks or possibly months as the peak of the dry season is near.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov