West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 75. North winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 72 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trades ease to gentle to moderate strength today, lasting through early next week prior to restrengthening Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Limited shower activity will be focused over windward areas into Saturday, and with the exception a few showers on the South Kona slopes each afternoon, leeward areas will be mostly dry. An increase in mainly windward and mauka rainfall is possible late Saturday into Monday.

Discussion

Broad area of high pressure well north of the islands will help maintain stable and dry conditions through the next couple days. Trades will ease to gentle to moderate strength today and into the weekend in response to an approaching weak surface trough from the east. While this trough is progged to dissipate upon reaching the islands, the associated moisture escorted by the trough may be just enough to increase humidity levels and prompt a greater chance for windward showers across Big Island and possibly Maui County during the latter half of the weekend, and then further north into Oahu and Kauai by early next week. Otherwise, shower activity will be limited and primarily across windward and mauka areas, with exception to the South Kona slopes during the afternoon periods.
Latest model guidance continues to depict trades strengthening back to moderate to locally breezy by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, however, with uncertainty persisting with regards to tropical development south of Hawaii, confidence of the forecast remains low. That said, the likeliness of breezy trades within drier conditions is high.

Aviation

Gentle to moderate trades will persist through the next several days under a relatively stable and dry pattern. Expect predominately VFR conditions across the Hawaiian Islands, however, brief periods of isolated showers across windward and mountain areas remain possible.
There currently are no AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure north of the area will continue to weaken today, allowing for moderate to locally fresh trades. The ridge will further weaken this weekend, easing wind speeds to gentle to fresh. Moderate to strong trades are expected to return during the first half of next week as the ridge strengthens northeast of the state and a tropical disturbance tracks well south of the state.
Small background south swell will keep surf above flat levels along south facing shores through early next week. A Gale force low east of New Zealand is expected to generate a series of small to moderate, long period, south swells that could begin to fill in by mid next week and produce above average surf. The surf could approach High Surf Advisory criteria during the peak of the event mid to late next week.
Choppy surf along east facing shores should trend down into the weekend as winds locally and upstream ease. Flat to tiny surf expected along north facing shores through the forecast period.
Peak afternoon high tides combined with elevated water levels continue to run about half a foot higher than predicted. This trend will continue through this afternoon and could lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low lying coastal areas of Maui County and the Big Island. Water levels should lower below thresholds during peak afternoon high tides by the weekend.

Fire weather

Dry and stable conditions will persist through Saturday, but locally breezy trade winds will ease slightly beginning today. A shallow area of moisture moving in from the east should bring an increase in humidity late Saturday into Monday, further decreasing fire weather concerns. Trade winds are expected to restrengthen Tuesday or Wednesday, with developing dry conditions reestablishing, may result in elevated fire weather concerns next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov