West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 69 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 84 to 90. East winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An unstable band of clouds riding in with the trade wind flow will enhance shower activity Wednesday morning into Thursday. The high will shift northeast as a weak front slides north of the state Thursday onward, weakening winds to light to gentle east to east southeast flow and allowing for land seabreezes to develop in the more sheltered areas into the weekend. Moderate trades may build back over the weekend into early next week as a new high builds north of the state.

Discussion

Ongoing Kilauea eruption will bring localized ashfall and Pele's hair south and west of the volcano as well as an increase in vog around the Big Island. A Special Weather Statement is posted on our website with more information.
Elsewhere, infrared satellite and radar show an incoming band of clouds and showers to the east just beginning to impact windward sides of the islands early this morning. Moderate trade winds will push this band across the islands today with some lingering showers tonight as the moisture tracks to the west. The trade wind inversion is around 7500 feet, but fairly weak due to an upper low to the northwest, which may allow some showers to become moderate in intensity and spill over to leeward sides of the islands.
Weakening trade winds will veer from a more east to southeast direction from Thursday into Friday as a front approaches from the northwest but stalls and weakens before reaching Hawaii. Decreasing large scale winds will allow thermally driven local scale sea breezes to strengthen during the daylight hours over all islands. Shower trends in this sea breeze pattern will tend to favor interior and upslope sections of the state each afternoon before clearing overnight. The latest weather model solutions also show good chances for converging winds along the leeward sides of island mountains producing shower bands extending from west to northwest of each island. These developing shower bands may briefly enhance rainfall amounts over Oahu and Kauai in this southeasterly wind regime from Thursday through Saturday.
Moderate easterly trades may build back over the weekend as a new high builds north of the state but there is still differences between the GFS and ECMWF model guidance on when and where an upper level trough will develop that is providing some uncertainty in the extended forecast.

Aviation

Moderate trades through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA should be mainly focused over windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in any SHRA otherwise VFR will prevail.
Kilauea has resumed erupting now episode 34. There is potential for ashfall to occur south and west of the volcano. In addition an ash cloud has been observed and could reach to FL250. SIGMET Series Whiskey will be used for volcanic ash.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Surface high pressure centered far north of the region will slowly advance east as a trough develops in its wake through Friday. This will maintain a tight enough downstream pressure gradient to produce moderate trades the next few days. The gradient will be disrupted as the trough pulls up northwest of the state by Friday. This will weaken winds while veering them slightly more south of east.
As what little energy is left of a small size, medium period north swell fades this morning, a couple of of small, medium period north northwest swells will arrive later tonight and Thursday evening. A more moderate size, medium period northwest swell originating from a compact North Pacific gale low passing to the north late Thursday is forecast to arrive this weekend. This swell will build surf heights to well over head high along many north and west- facing shores by Sunday.
A series of very small, medium to long period south southwest swells will keep south-facing shore surf from going completely flat through the week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain small within moderate trades.

Fire weather

Wind speeds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds for the next seven days. Temperature inversion heights across the state will range from 7,000 to 8,000 feet.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov