West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 74. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 74. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Showers early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Showers early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 58 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 70 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trades will gradually ease into the weekend. A band of moisture will linger over windward and mauka areas from Oahu to the Big Island, keeping frequent moderate to light showers through the morning hours. Expect a drying trend later today into the weekend as a drier and more stable airmass filters in.

Discussion

A 1030 mb high located NE of the state will continue to drive breezy to locally windy conditions today, however there will be a general down trend today to locally breezy levels as the high weakens. Rainfall totals for the past 12 hrs range from .20 inches to well over 2 inches for some of the wetter locations along windward Maui and the Big Island. Satellite and radar imagery continues to shows a lingering band of clouds with mostly light to moderate showers focused mainly along with windward and mauka regions across the eastern half of the state early this morning. CIMSS water vapor imagery shows a drier than normal airmass just east of this band which will filter in through the day and overnight. Expect chances of showers to decrease and inversion heights to drop as this drier and stable airmass builds in.
Inversion heights are expected to sink to 5 kft or lower by early Saturday, bringing an end to meaningful rainfall across the area. A front passing north of the state over the weekend will further weakening winds locally as the high weakens to the NE.
Early next week a surge of southerly moisture will fill in first for Big Island then for the rest of the state Tuesday. Trades are expected to shift to a more east southeast direction as another front approaches from the NW. This will increase inversion heights and chances of rainfall once again. There is still some model discrepancies on the location and evolution of an upper trough and the frontal passage mid week next week but the overall pattern suggests a wetter pattern through the rest of forecast period with precipitable water vapor values 1-2 standard deviationsfrom normal.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will gradually ease today as a high pressure far northeast of the state slowly weakens and drifts farther eastward. Regional satellite imagery and model guidance suggests that moisture embedded within the trades will continue to produce occasional MVFR, including isolated IFR conditions, over windward portions of the eastern islands as showers move into the area. For the western islands, occasional MVFR conditions will be possible, but windward showers are expected to be less frequent.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across north through east sections from Oahu to the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve today which could warrant dropping the airmet for all or some remaining islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain below 10,000 feet. This AIRMET will likely be needed into Saturday.

Marine

The tight pressure gradient from a large surface high northeast of the islands will continue to drive moderate to locally strong trade winds across the majority of the local nearshore waters. The high will travel south southeast while slightly weakening, resulting in decreasing easterlies from later today through the weekend. An all-water Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon for both gusty winds and high seas. Western marine zones will fall off tonight with zones from the Kaiwi Channel eastward remaining in the SCA overnight Saturday morning. A SCA will be in effect for the traditionally windy waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island until 6 AM Sunday morning. A front approaching from the northwest early next week could veer moderate to fresh winds a touch south of east.
The recent short period northeast chop generated by a strong trade fetch will be on the gradual decline through Saturday. The High Surf Advisory for elevated, rough east-facing shore surf remains in effect through this afternoon. Choppy east surf will gradually decline through the weekend as a result of weakening local and upstream trades. The small kine northwest swell that peaked yesterday (Thursday) will fade through today. A smaller size, medium period northwest swell will fill in this weekend and provide a small boost to north and west-facing shore surf. The small, medium period south swell that peaked yesterday will slowly fade through today. Very small background southerly swell will remain through the weekend.

Fire weather

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will trend down today through the weekend. Regional satellite imagery and model guidance suggests that moisture embedded within the trades will continue to produce occasional MVFR, including isolated IFR conditions, over windward portions of the eastern islands as showers move into the area. For the western islands, occasional MVFR conditions will be possible, but windward showers are expected to be less frequent. Current inversion heights slope from 7 kft around Kauai to 16 kft around the Big Island. Inversion heights are expected to drop around 5 kft or lower Saturday as a significantly drier airmass fills.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across north through east sections from Oahu to the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve today which could warrant dropping the airmet for all or some remaining areas.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain below 10,000 feet. This AIRMET will likely be needed into Saturday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov