West Side

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 69 to 87. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trades will persist through today before weakening to light to locally breezy over the weekend. Expect showers to focus mainly over windward and mauka areas with some showers spilling over to leeward locations today. Mid level drying will limit clouds and showers Friday into early next week. Easing trade winds over the weekend could allow for more of a hybrid land/sea breeze pattern. Drier moderate trades should return Sunday.

Discussion

Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds streaming over the state from southwest to northeast early this morning and a band of low level clouds moving from east to west just east of the state. Radar imagery also shows scattered light to moderate showers embedded within this band of clouds that will push west this morning. CIMSS PWAT imagery shows drier air behind this band clouds. In addition, the soundings this morning also show drier air infiltrating in the low to mid levels that will limit showers to more light to moderate intensities today. Overnight ASCAT pass also showed that this band is on the leading edge of slightly stronger winds. Thus can expect breezy to locally windy trades to continue through today with clouds and showers mainly focused along windward and mauka areas, some showers may still spill over to leeward areas at times. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this morning as temperatures and elevated moisture will bring period of light snow to the summits. Conditions are expected to improve shortly after sunrise and with the drying trend this advisory maybe cancelled later this morning.
A surface high far northeast of the state that is generating the breezy trade winds will begin track east and weaken tonight through the weekend as a front passes north of the state. Friday trade winds will taper to more typical trade wind speeds and the drier airmass will continue to fill in limiting clouds and showers mainly to windward and mauka locations. Mid to upper level clouds will still create partly to mostly cloudy conditions.
By Saturday a hybrid trade wind and sea breeze pattern could develop. Mid to upper level clouds will still linger across the state as an upper level disturbances moves over the state. In addition low low level clouds and showers from the remnant front may move over the state increasing shower potential across the state. However, cloud heights and showers will continue to be limited due to dry mid levels. The greatest chance of showers will be around Big Island where lingering moisture will be the deepest.
Drier and more stable conditions will fill in Sunday into Monday as mid to upper level ridging builds over the state. Winds may veer east southeast during the first half of next week as another front approaches the state from the northwest. Not expecting any significant weather as low to mid levels will remain dry during this time.

Aviation

Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the state this morning. However expect periods of MVFR due to CLD and SHRA as a band of low level clouds and showers push onshore over windward and mauka areas this morning. Mid to high clouds will continue to move from the southwest to northeast across the state.
AIRMET Sierra maybe need later this morning as band of low clouds fills in along windward and mauka slopes.
AIRMET Tango in effect due to low level turb lee of mtn.
AIRMET Zulu in effect due to light icing associated with the mid level CLD.

Marine

A 1033 mb surface high far north northeast of the state will help maintain fresh to strong easterly trade winds today. As the high drifts eastward Friday through this weekend, trades will begin to slowly trend down. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this evening, for contributions from both winds and seas, but may need to be paired back tonight as the winds begin to slowly ease and seas lower. If current guidance holds, the SCA could be dropped all together by Saturday.
The current moderate, medium period, northwest swell (320) peaked earlier this morning, as noted on the Waimea Bay buoy observations. This swell will slowly lose energy through remainder of today, but should continue to keep surf elevated for north and west facing shores. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai through noon today. However, if the swell lingers longer than expected, the HSA will need to be extended through at least the rest of the afternoon. Another moderate, medium period, northwest swell (310-330) is progged to arrive Saturday into Sunday and should once again produce surf at or near advisory levels along north and west facing shores. Looking ahead towards mid next week, a large, long period, northwest (310-330) swell is forecast to arrive and could bring advisory or even warning level surf along north and west facing shores.
East shore surf will remain elevated and rough today, but expected to decline Friday into this weekend as trades weaken over and upstream of the islands.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the forecast period. A wet, breezy trade wind pattern will hold through today with winds tapering off Friday into early next week. Lingering low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity levels above critical thresholds. Inversion heights this morning range from 6,000 to 7,000 ft.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until noon HST today for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon HST today for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov